Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Is YTLLAND (2577) a good buy in long run?



According to my analysis on YTLLAND, fundamentally it is totally not appeal to me. Extremely low ROE (if not mistaken by referring to the annual report, its average-5 year ROE no more than 5%), due to low profit but large base asset. The relative valuation such as P/E not attractive at all also because of low EPS.

Moreover, due to the nature of the business in property sector, the profit is highly fluctuating. In year 2005 and 2006, it had profit around RM40 mil and subsequently the profit dropped 'gaogao' till RM13 mil in year 2008. For me, a good company should have increased its profit gradually every year instead of decreasing. For your information regarding the the latest FYI 2009 (unaudited), the company only made a profit of RM1.9 mil. What a pathetic poor result.

Even in a good year, YTLLAND seems cannot make a good profit while it sit at a huge asset base and I just cant' imagine what kind of poor result it will attain during bad time. This is the reason why I don't like most of the property stocks in Bursa Malaysia.

Of course, if we look at the technical side, we might well receive different perception because the share price is at an uptrend bounce. Since it is a high-beta stock as we look at the graph above that showing it could drop at a high of RM2.38 to RM.425 (around 83% depreciation from peak), then it could be probably stand again at RM2.38 if KLCI index can bounce to the peak of 1,500 points. But who knows what is going happen to YTLLAND if it just sound too crazy to value it at RM2.38. YTLLAND just does not worth for at RM2.38 base on its earnings track record.

As a conclusion, YTLLAND is a speculating stock which can only be hold for short term and not fundamentally strong to hold for long term.

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