Sunday, December 18, 2011

马来西亚政府以面值(Par Value)来计算土著股权占有率(Bumiputera's shareholding)的险恶居心

假设30年前,马来西亚有5间公司(既是A, B, C, D 和 E公司),每间公司的发行股数为1,000股以及其股票的面值(Par Value)为RM1.00,而且所有公司都以其面值的价值来发行(Issue Price)股票,所以每一间公司的缴足资本为(Issued and Paid-Up Capital)RM1,000。

如果这5间公司以面值来计算的话其占市场上的股权占有率如下:
Value of A = RM1,000 (20%)
Value of B = RM1,000 (20%)
Value of C = RM1,000 (20%)
Value of D = RM1,000 (20%)
Value of E = RM1,000 (20%)
Total Value = RM5,000 (100%)

由于当时这5间公司在同时开始营运,所以它们的盈余保留(Retained Earnings/ Reserve)是0。因此它们的股东资金(Shareholders’ Equity,又可称为Net Asset Value,简称NAV)是相同的:
(Number of Shares * Par Value) + Share Premium + Retained Earnings = NAV
NAV of A = (1,000 * RM1.00) + RM0 + RM0 = RM1,000
NAV of B = (1,000 * RM1.00) + RM0 + RM0 = RM1,000
NAV of C = (1,000 * RM1.00) + RM0 + RM0 = RM1,000
NAV of D = (1,000 * RM1.00) + RM0 + RM0 = RM1,000
NAV of E = (1,000 * RM1.00) + RM0 + RM0 = RM1,000

而且我们也假设它们的市价(Market Value,简称MV)是NAV的1倍,既是Price-to-book ratio (P/B)= 1 time。所以在起点时这5间公司以市价来计算的话,它们的股权占有率都是相等的:
MV = NAV * 1x of P/B
MV of A = RM1,000 (20%)
MV of B = RM1,000 (20%)
MV of C = RM1,000 (20%)
MV of D = RM1,000 (20%)
MV of E = RM1,000 (20%)
Total MV = RM5,000 (100%)

土著在当时只控有A公司,那土著在30年前以面值或市价来计算他们的股权占有率都显示出他们控有了20%的股权。

30年后,这5间公司的Retained Earnings/ Reserve如下:
Retained Earnings/ Reserve of A = RM10,000
Retained Earnings/ Reserve of B = RM1,000
Retained Earnings/ Reserve of C = RM1,000
Retained Earnings/ Reserve of D = RM2,000
Retained Earnings/ Reserve of E = RM-20,000

这5间公司30年后的NAV如下(假设这5间公司在30年里没有派过任何股息,没有做过股票自购(Share Buyback)没有做过股票分割或整合(Share Split or Share Consolidation),没有派过红股(Bonus Issue)或Share Dividend,也没曾发行过附加股(Rights Issue)):
NAV of A: RM1,000 + RM0 + RM10,000 = RM11,000
NAV of B: RM1,000 + RM0 + RM1,000 = RM2,000
NAV of C: RM1,000 + RM0 + RM1,000 = RM2,000
NAV of D: RM1,000 + RM0 + RM2,000 = RM3,000
NAV of E: RM1,000 + RM0 + RM-20,000 = RM-19,000

由于E公司的股东资金为负数并宣布破产,所以它的市价为0。以那剩下4间公司的面值来算公司的股权占有率如下:
Value of A = RM1,000 (25%)
Value of B = RM1,000 (25%)
Value of C = RM1,000 (25%)
Value of D = RM1,000 (25%)
Total Value = RM4,000 (100%)

大家可以看得出如果以面值来算,那土著所掌控的A公司在整个市场上的占有率只略为提升至25%,还少于30%。但这并没有算进公司NAV的增长,极可能是政府刻意忽略,以达到其控制市场为终极目标的恶毒居心。

如果以剩下的4间公司的NAV来算它们的市价 (假设它们的P/B率还是1倍),那它们各自的股权占有率如下:
MV of A = RM11,000 (61.11%)
MV of B = RM2,000 (11.11%)
MV of C = RM2,000 (11.11%)
MV of D = RM3,000 (16.67%)
Total MV = RM18,000 (100%)

可以看得出以市价算股权占有率的话,土著的股权占有率其实已经透过A公司掌控达到了61.11%的市场股权占有率,而不是政府所说的25%。

看回马来西亚上市公司的市值最大的前3间公司,既是Sime Darby, Maybank和CIMB Bank,是不是跟我以上的例子有点相似?如果以面值来算的话,那这3间公司在马来西亚1,000间上市公司中的股权占有率就是及其微小的,但是以市价来算的话那情况就不一样了。现在大家可看透了马来西亚政府的“用心”了么?