RCE Capital Berhad在最新业绩报告(2013 Q4)出人意表地陷入亏损

RCE Capital Berhad ("RCECAP")向公务员的薪水里自动扣除部分来还贷的生意模式都面对坏账的问题，虽说是因为采取了更严格的MFRS而导致坏账的增加，但这也显示出本地金融业将开始步入金融泡沫破裂的前奏。

国家中央银行("BNM")应该是为了避免人民过度借贷和不想重蹈覆辙类似美国的次级房贷债务风暴，已经开始采取贷款紧缩政策。非银行金融机构如MBSB和RCECAP已经被BNM盯上了，我看BNM会设下更严厉的借贷条件来防止过度借贷，可能会逐步的对银行金融机构设立严厉的借贷条件，所以那些过度借贷个人贷款或房贷的朋友可要小心了。

最后就是美国经济和中国经济将逐步好转，而且美联储已经放话要退出量宽政策，长期来看美元将会加强进而利息会逐渐的提高，即时那些过度借贷的人可能会面临偿还高利息的难题。

看来BNM的紧缩贷款政策和长期利息高升的趋势下，马来西亚经济和楼市的荣景将会到了一个尽头。

因为以前的Nestle，所以今天的Oldtown

几年前当我在为Nestle做估值研究时，发现到Nestle当时的内在价值跟它的市价RM20++相差无几而且其本益比已经将近30倍，所以我决定不买进。现在Nestle的市价已经是RM60++而本益比还是接近20多30倍，那Nestle现在还是那么贵？那多几年后Nestle的市价升到RM120我还是因为它起了那么多本益比那么高所以不买进？

后来我在近期才领悟到巴菲特如何从以往只买烟屁股的股票进化到买进强劲品牌的公司，如何凭着投资人和生意人的直觉找出拥有护城河的品牌公司跟普通公司之间的差别。品牌公司的股价会因为业务有增长并逐步步入成熟期而提高其派息率而会起得更高，那我现在因为本益比高了所以卖了品牌公司的股票焉不是个错误的决定？品牌公司能以数值化的本益比来加以定义么？品牌公司值得多少钱？多少倍的本益比才是高？20倍？30倍？我只想强调投资是门艺术，有时需要靠直觉，而光靠数字思考，将会让我错失更多的机会。

同样的道理也能适用在Oldtown。现在Oldtown的本益比是22倍，它有没有可能再升高呢？如果Oldtown的税后盈利接下几年都能增长15%至20%，如果它的本益比就好比Nestle那般即使股价长年不变的企稳在20倍以上，那意味着Oldtown的股价将会根据其盈利而在4至5年开个翻达RM5.20。我就在此做个记录看4至5年后Oldtown的股价会如我所料的升高至RM5.20。

Mr. Fong Siling's speech in a forum (held on 16 March 2013)

Yesterday (16 March 2013) I attended an investment forum held by Nanyang and Hong Leong Bank. The speaker of the forum was Fong Siling, who is a famous and successful Malaysian share investor. The forum was held at the Nanyang's office at Kelana Jaya and it commenced at 2.15pm. There were approximately 1,500 to 2,000 audience present at the forum.

Long story short, I was disappointed with the forum, I would only rate the forum 5.5 out of 10. The 1st reason of my disappointment was that despite Mr. Fong is very knowledgeable and willing share his opinion experience to everyone, but he is not a good speaker. Probably due to time constraint and Fong had a lot of things to tell and share, so he did not simplify and convey most of his message in layman term and this could be quite difficult for those investment amateur to understand what he was trying to convey.

However, there were few worth noting points shared by Fong. Fong has been invested in the market for 40 years. He was very humble to tell the audience that he is not a smart investor, but through his hardwork in reading annual reports, doing investment research and never distract from his long term value investing framework, eventually he ripe a great achievement from his investment. He had been emphasising in order to be successful in shares investment, ones must not have the attitude that assuming investment in shares is akin 'playing stocks' nor short term speculating. It is all about knowing the business and investing part of the shareholding of the business, understand the valuation of the business and invest at the right time with cheap cost. His five yardsticks on selecting stocks are shown below:

1. Return on Equity ("ROE")

2. Cash Flow ("CF") and Free Cash Flow ("FCF")

3. Price-to-Earnings Ratio ("PER")

4. Dividend Yield ("DY")

5. Price-to-Net Tangible Asset ("P/B")

The second problem was that the organiser, Nanyang did a very poor arrangement in avenue and MC, as the avenue were overrun by excessive crowd and was very stuffy, and THE MC did not conduct properly for the protocols of the forum.

Last but not least, the quality of the Q&A session was very poor. I strongly believe that when we are investing, we should emphasise more on the process of investment instead of the outcome of investment.With the right investment strategy and framework and execute this strategy and framework disciplinarily (which is the process), and the desire outcome will come along the way of the process. But I observed that most of the Q&A raised by audience were too outcome oriented instead of seeking advice from Fong on how to improve their investing skill in accordance to their risk return profile and investment time horizon.

This proves the quote from Warren Buffet is right that "...Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace， and those who read their Graham & Dodd will continue to prosper...". So I regret that investing community in Malaysia is not as educated and matured as other developed countries, and to be thankful of the existence of this group investors so I could continue to grow my fortune via value investing.

Path to the CFA (Part 4)

The result of CFA Level I was posted online during the Chinese New Year 2009. In order not to spoil my holiday mood, I only checked the result few days after the Chinese New Year festival, and that was at the beginning of February 2009.

When I knew I passed the Level I, I had to make a very critical decision to continue sit for the Level II in the coming June 2009 and I only had another 4 more months to study. In addition, I learnt from the past experience that self-study is not easy and also my other friends who have taken the Level II before told me that Level II is the toughest level, so I was considering to take extra tuition at the Kasturi college in KL which will commence in 7 February 2009. Furthermore, the tuition fees was RM4k which was a lot to me since I did not work at that time.At the end, I decided to take the tuition class and thus I had to shift from Ipoh back to KL.

The tuition classes were normally hold on weekend and started from 9am to 5pm. Sometimes certain tutors were not available during weekend, they would reschedule the tuition class on one of the weekdays and the class would start from 6pm to 9pm.

Since I was studying full time, so I had time to attend msot of the tuition classes. However I would skip certain classes due to the reason that I did not like certain tutors as they always talked something not relevant to the CFA program.

So far I could tell there were 2 good tutors from the college, i.e. David Meow and Wong Kah Teck. Both of them have vast working experience and they are exprienced professional with relevant professional qualifications. They were giving tutor classes for topics such as Ethics, Equities, Corporate Finance, Bond, Economics, Portfolio Management, Derivatives, Alternative Investments and Quantitatives. According to what I know, Wong Kah Teck has open his own consultant firm and he is no longer the tutor of the college, and David is still teaching in the college.

This round I changed my studying strategy. I was more interactive in the study. I read the relevant topics before I went to the class and seek clarifications from the tutors during the class. In addition, I also knew some students who are investment banker, equity analyst, risk management analyst, corporate finance advisor, corporate lawyer, auditor and etc. Later when we knew each other more in the class, we form our study group and we would hold group discussions once to twice a month, and think this type of study group assisted in many ways of learning the CFA program.

Path to the CFA (Part 3)

There were 10 topics for the CFA Level I in year 2008:
I.Ethical and Professional Standards ("Ethics")
II.Quantitative Methods ("Quants")
III.Economics ("Econs")
IV.Financial Reporting Analysis ("FRA")
V.Corporate Finance ("CF")
VI.Analysis of Equity Investments ("Equity")
VII.Analysis of Debt Investments ("Debt")
VIII.Analysis of Derivatives ("Derivatives")
IX.Analysis of Alternative Investments ("Alternative Investments")
X.Portfolio Management ("PM")


The above topics were basicly similar to those subjects that I learnt in my degree program except Ethical and Professional Standards, Derivatives and Alternative Investments. I also noticed Ethics, FRA and Equity this 3 topics were weighted quite a high percentage, so they were the deal breaker that I need to score well (to score more than >70%) in order to my chance of passing Level I. Subjects rank 2nd priority to score well would be CF, Equity and Debt.


When I registered for Level I in Feb 2008, I first started to read on Ethical and professional standards. I was only able to finish reading Ethics in July 2008, and I spent a month travelling and watching Olympic Games in August, so I left another 3 months to study the remaining 9 topics. 


I started my day in reading at 7.30am everyday, take a lunch break at 12.30pm, continue to read at 1.30pm to 5.30pm, then another break until 8pm and I went to sleep at 11.00pm. So I studied around 10 to 12 hours everyday, including weekend.


My strategy of studying Level I was to read through all the 10 topics twice, completed the exercises inside the books. As the questions from the real exam would be tested in the format that similar to the exercises from the books, it was vital for me to understand those exercises thoroughly. I did not read any extra books from other non-CFA Institute such as Schweser and Kaplan. In my opinion, the 6-thick-CFA Curriculum books had already occupied of my time. In addition, the exercises of the books from those non-CFA Institute are not standard, they were either too hard or too easy and not tested in the way presented in the real exam.


Even though I had learnt most of the level I topics through my study in the degree program, I still found it was hard for me to understand certain topics such as Quant, Derivatives and PM. As I self-studied for the Level I, the only guidance I could get was from the web. So I google searched a lot and get the answers or more explaination from investopedia or other investment forums. 


There are 2 forums which are very good in guiding me in my study in CFA:
http://bbs.cfaspace.com/
http://www.analystforum.com/
The 1st link is a chinese website whereby the 2nd link is in English.


I had completed reading all topics of Level I 2 weeks before the exam, then only I login to the CFA website to download sample exam questions. However, I did quite badly on the sample questions, indeed I only got 40% of the questions right. At that moment I was panic as I realised I was not well prepared for the exam. I put more effort in reading those topics of which I had scored poorly in the sample test. 


1 week later, I login to the CFA website again and did the mob exam with time measure of 3 hours for 120 questions in order to train my time management in the exam, and this time I still not able to get an overall results of 70%, so I failed again. However, this time I felt relief as I was scoring approximate 60% which was showing I was improving this time. It could be because I was gradually adopting to the way of the test. So my advice to CFA candidates that you should complete the sample and mob exam questions from the CFA website so to get yourself adopt to the testing environment.


The CFA exam is hold on Sunday of the 1st week in June or December. I was taking the exam in December 2010, so the exam date fell on 5 December 2010. The examination venue was at the Sunway Convention Centre, Kuala Lumpur. As the exam date was coming soon so the more pressure I could feel. I stopped to study 3 days before the exam, and I went to watch movie, swimming and worked out to relief the pressure. I saw quite a number of candidates skipped the 1-hour lunch break after the morning exam session so they could have more time to study on the exam that day, to my opinion I don't think that would make any difference of reading more for the 2nd half of the exam? I would rather go to eat a meal so to prepare and relax myself with more energy for the afternoon session.


I had booked a motel room nearby the exam location to stay there 1 day before the exam date, and I went to check out the location of exam hall to make sure that I would not miss and come late for the exam. The night before the exam I slept 12 hours before the exam but too bad the motel's room is not well insulative and I was woke up few times by the noise from the neighbour rooms...>_


The exam started on 9am, but candidates were required to register their attendance 1 hour before the commencement of the exam, so I reached at the registration site at 8am. Before I went into the exam hall, I noticed one fellow was being stopped by a proctor because the fellow was trying to bring in the unapproved Casio Financial Calculator into the exam. What a poor fellow, he must be too lazy to read the testing policies. According to the testing policies of the CFA Program, only 2 types of financial calculator are allowed to be used in the exam, i.e. Texas Instruments BA II Plus (including BA II Plus Professional) and Hewlett Packard 12C (including the HP 12C Platinum, 12C 25th anniversary edition, and 12C 30th anniversary edition) 
http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprogram/exams/Pages/policies.aspx


I felt freaking cool when I was inside the hall. Luckily I did bring a jacket to keep myself warm. I was very nervous, so I tried to calm down by telling myself in my mind that the end result was either I make it through or never. The morning session of the exam last for 3 hours and ended at 12pm, I barely had enough time to answer all 120 questions. After that I took an hour of for lunch and napped for 10 minutes. The afternoon session continued at 2pm but candidates need to report at the registration site at 1pm. Another 120 item set questions, but it was a little bit easier than the morning session so I was able to complete all these questions in 3 hours. The afternoon session ended at 5pm so I felt so relief, finally it was over!

Path to the CFA (Part 2)

What are the requirements to enter the CFA Program? According the information disclosed in the website of the CFA Institute, the entrance requirements are as follows:
- Have a bachelor's (or equivalent) degree (a) or be in final year of the bachelor's degree program (b) or have 4 years of professional work experience (does not have to be investment related)
- Understand the professional conduct requirements
- Be prepared to the exams in English
- Have a valid international travel passport 
http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprogram/process/Pages/index.aspx 


Whereby the exam formats are as follows:
- Level I exam is composed of item set questions (Multiple Choice Questions) and is offered in June and December
- Level II is composed of item set questions (Multiple Choice Questions) and is offered in June only
- Level III consists of item set and essay and is offered in June only
http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprogram/exams/Pages/index.aspx 


As I always receive feedbacks from readers that how long the period did I take to complete the CFA program, and hence I would like to show my timeline of completing the CFA program below. 


Assuming the candidates register the Level I exam on December 2012 at the last deadline on September 2012, and passed all the 3 exams in one attempt and receive the result of Level III exam on August 2014, then you just complete the program as little as 24 months. However, according to the statistic of the CFA Institute, on average the program takes about 4 years to complete the program. And for your information, there is no specified time frame to complete the exams and there is no limitation on the number of times to take an exam. http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprogram/process/enter/Pages/completing_the_cfa_program.aspx 


Whereby I myself registered to sit for the Level I exam on February 2008. However I was very busy in travelling to overseas for company's projects and thus I did not study the CFA program since the registration until I left from the company in July 2008 and I also spent 3 weeks in travelling and watching the Beijing Olympic Game in August 2008. 


I only seriously started to study in September 2008, from that moment it was about 3 months (or 90 days) from the CFA exams in December. I received 6 CFA curriculum books and the books consist of 3,200 pages. The next 2 levels will contain the similar volume of reading close to or more than 3,000 pages. If I need to finish the 3,000 pages, I was required to read close to 35 pages everyday before the exams. And I also planned to finish reading those books for 2 rounds in order to prepare myself for the sample and mock CFA exams which are available on the CFA website 1 week before the real time test. So I spent 10 to 12 hours everyday in studying, that include Saturday and Sunday. 


In addition, before I registered for the Level I exam, I read the outline of Level I and I noticed that those topics covered in CFA Level I are basically equivalent to what I have studied in the bachelor degree (major in accounting and finance). So I decided to self-study for Level I. However, I was unable to understand certain topics and there was no one I can refer to ask for guidance, from there I realised the difficulties of self-studying. So later when I proceed to take Level II and Level III, I took up additional tuition class for the CFA program. 


Another famous question related to the CFA program that I always encounter is how much did I spend on the CFA program. If I am not mistaken, I spent around USD1,500 (estimates to be RM4,500 or no more than RM5,000) for the registration of all the 3 CFA exams, and these fees are for those who passed all the 3 exams in one attempt. The more frequent the candidates re-sit for the exams, then each exams will cost them additional USD300 to USD400. But when I checked the CFA website recently, I noticed the cost of registration is now USD450, looks like the CFA Institute has increased the registration fees. http://www.cfainstitute.org/cfaprogram/process/fees/Pages/index.aspx 


In addition, as I mentioned I did enrolled myself for extra tuition classes for Level II and III, so each level I spent another RM4,000++. I took the tuition classes in Kasturi college at Kuala Lumpur. In addition, the college will rebate students up to RM1,000 if the students fulfill certain requirements such as attending more than 70% of the class, passed one of the three sample exams hold by the college, passed the CFA exam. So the cost of taking each of the tuition classes in Kasturi college was only RM3,000++ as I had fulfilled all the above mentioned requirements. Too bad I could not pass all the topics of the exam with distinciton (>70%) otherwise the remaining tuition of RM3,000 will be waived by the college. So my effective cost of taking the CFA program was about RM11,000 to RM12,000. 


Initially, I planned to start looking for a financial job again after passing the CFA level I. However, the world economy was in bad shape when I passed the CFA level I in end of January 2009. So I told myself I should continue study to pass the remaining 2 levels in one attempt if I committed in studying full time, and when the time I complete the CFA program which would be at end-2010, the world economy should be recovering and I would be able to look for a banking job more easier.


(to be continued)

Path to the CFA (Part 1)

(Note: As requested by some of the readers who PM me recently regarding the CFA program, I think it's for me to write something to share my experience in studying the CFA program. As I completed the CFA program quite some time ago, I need to recall my memory on the study. Maybe I can finish writting the story few days later) 

10 years ago while I was studying at the New Era college, that was the first time I got to know about the CFA program from my economic lectuer. He told the class that the CFA program is one of the most rigorous professional program. At that moment, the CFA program was something very far to achieve, indeed I was struggling to catch up the study in the college. 

When I started to work in an investment bank 2 years later as my first job, it was the second time I heard about the CFA program from a senior who is a CFA Charterholder. He recommended me to sit for the CFA program if I intend to start a career in the investment/finance sector and he could be one of my sponsors for the application of the CFA Charter titles if I can complete the CFA program. However, I was confused what would be my ultimate career path and thus I did not take his advice. After staying 20 months in the bank, I switched my career to work as an application engineer, and I was busily travelling abroad whenever I was assigned to work on oversea projects. 

I like numbers and I think logically, and both IT programming and finance do consist the elements I am looking for. However, things do not go into the way I was expecting as I realised that I should just stick into working at the financial related job. I did a lot of investment research and slowly built up my own investment portfolio even after I was left the bank, and this is where I finally noticed it could be my passion lay in. 

It could be a flip-flop, but I decided to make the call instead of getting myself too far and wasting my limited life of working. I left my second job in July 2008 and planned to take a 6-month break to study level I of the CFA program, and it happened before the outburst of the financial crisis in September 2008. So coincidence that I was seem like making a right call this time as if I would have stayed on in the job, I would not have had any bonus and salary increment for the next years, according to the source of my ex-colleague. 

Why I took the CFA program? What are the reasons trigger me to pursue the CFA program? These drill down to my passion on investment and for career enhancement purpose. As I mentioned that I did a lot of investment research not only for my own passion but I also rely on investment research to generate more passive income, so by studying CFA will further enhance my knowledge and subsequently it will turn my investment portfolio to generate better return. In addition, if I would like to switch back from the IT line to the financial sector, with CFA certification will equip me with a better skillset that is in demand in the financial sector. 

(to be continued)