tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-82752090316225757662024-03-13T12:44:15.923+08:00All Things Mathematical, Abstract And Artkinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.comBlogger80125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-88937079840623466792014-04-17T19:26:00.001+08:002014-04-17T19:27:04.185+08:00悼念卡巴星 (Karpal Singh)<h4 style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-weight: normal; line-height: 15.200002670288086px; text-align: left;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></h4>
<h4 style="text-align: center;">
<span style="background-color: white; font-size: x-large; line-height: 15.200002670288086px; text-align: left;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">壮</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: x-large; line-height: 15.200002670288086px; text-align: left;">志未酬身先死,长使英雄泪满襟。</span></h4>
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<br />kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-90528011596082127522014-04-01T10:42:00.001+08:002014-04-01T10:42:29.698+08:003月31日的感伤每一年在3月31日结束的最后一刻时,我都会回忆起一些往事,心里感到十分的伤痛。<br />
<br />
今朝叹昨昔恨情稠<br />
花开花落去留无意<br />
天隔一方永难相见<br />
心悲满韶华竟白头kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-5888543831952586342014-03-28T15:18:00.002+08:002014-03-28T17:01:51.839+08:00My Financial Planning Experience (Part 4)<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">My study loan of RM50,000 was charged at a flat
rate of 9% where I was required to repay this principal and interest within 5
years after my graduation from university. The study loan was a flexible loan
where I could repay more than the minimum monthly repayment or a whole lump-sum
in order to save interest costs.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">However, my 1<sup>st</sup> year in work did not
even make me to save at least RM10,000 as I was only paid RM750/month, so
repayment of RM50,000 study loan seemed impossible. I once doubted that the ROI
for my tertiary education could be negative. Fortunately my working income jumped
few folds after I completed the graduate training programme and the bank hired
me as the permanent staff. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">With stable income and fat bonus from the bank,
I was able to save close to RM30,000 in the 2<sup>nd</sup> year of work and
invested these savings into shares listed in Bursa. I was able to settle the
study loan and its interest with full repayment after working for 3 years so I
could move on to next phase for a plan to possess my own assets. Over the years
in my 20s, there was peer-pressure of having a nice car, fancy gadgets,
fantastic holidays, delicious food etc, but I resisted all temptations to overspend
with the will of being financial freedom earlier before age 40.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">As I have shared in the previous post that I
took a 2-year break for full-time study of the CFA programme commenced in year
2008, where my investment portfolio and savings were amounting to RM150,000.
During the 2-year study, I got a lot of free time, hence I also engaged in
other businesses and activities and these almost exhausted of my investment and
savings.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The expenses breakdown of the 2-year study were
shown below:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Examination and registration fees for the CFA
Programme= US$1,500 (approximately RM4,000 to RM4,500 for all 3 levels)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Extra curriculum class for the CFA Programme = RM11,000 (for Level II & Level III)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2-year living expenses = RM30,000++<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Travelling expenses = RM10,000++ (1 month to Thailand
and 3 weeks to China)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Prawn rearing business start-up costs = RM20,000<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Acquisition costs for 2-acre vacant land = RM70,000<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The prawn rearing business did not work well
and it was eventually written off from my book, left only 2-acre vacant land which
is turned into a banana estate. The reasons I bought the 2-acre land due to
attractive price and also this land is nearby my home town house and thus my father
who is a retiree can spend his spare time in plantation.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">I completed the CFA programme in August 2010
where I only had left with some pocket money of less than RM5,000, I realised I was just back to square one in my finances and this was the similar situation when I graduated from the university 8
years ago. I was broke and need a job to re-build my financial goal again during the
time when the world economy was just recovering from a financial crisis since
year 2008.</span></span></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-64029957782301915162014-03-13T21:25:00.000+08:002014-03-13T21:34:05.187+08:00To find MAS' missing plane MH370 with Bayes' Theorem?<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Forward: </span><br />
<h2>
<span style="color: red; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">An 18th century math equation may hold answer to finding missing plane, say scientists</span></h2>
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<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<a href="http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/an-18th-century-math-equation-may-hold-answer-to-finding-missing-plane-say"><span style="font-size: large;">http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/an-18th-century-math-equation-may-hold-answer-to-finding-missing-plane-say</span></a></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Scientists believe the solution to finding Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 may lie with a mathematical equation.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Speaking to Al Jazeera, they say that Bayes' Theorem, an 18th century mathematical equation, could help to locate the missing plane which dozens of authorities worldwide have not been able to after five days of search and rescue operations.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">“It’s a very short, simple equation that says you can start out with hypothesis about something - and it doesn’t matter how good the hypothesis is,” said Sharon Bertsch McGrayne, who has authored a book explaining the method in layman's language, The Theory That Would Not Die.</span></div>
<div class="g-ads left" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; float: left; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-right: 10px; overflow: hidden; padding: 5px;">
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<div style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #222222;">And the hypothesis is </span><span style="color: red;">subject to change, based on probability</span><span style="color: #222222;">, but can still be used with the theorem. Pretty much based on the concept of learning from experience, one can say.</span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #222222;">It is because of this </span><span style="color: red;">character of the formula - forcing researchers to change their hypothesis with each new information - that the probability becomes more accurate</span><span style="color: #222222;">.</span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #222222;">According Lawrence D. Stone, chief scientist at Virginia-based consultancy Metron whose help was sought to apply Bayes’ Theorem in the Air France incident, Bayes’ Theorem “</span><span style="color: red;">allows the organisation of available data with associated uncertainties and computation of the PDF (probability distribution function) for target location given these data</span><span style="color: #222222;">".</span></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">In the past, Bayes’ Theorem, said to be discovered by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s and modernised by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace, had helped locate German U-boats during World War II and spot Soviet submarines during the Cold War. More recently, it is used in Google's "driverless cars" project and in stock market predictions.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Advocates of this theory said it was also used in the search for the black box of the ill-fated Air France flight 447, which crashed in the vast Atlantic Ocean in June 2009.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">What took two years for other experts in the search for the black box, took only five days for consultants who applied the Bayes’ Theorem, to finally find the device 12,000 feet under water.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Stone told Al Jazeera that in the current search for flight MH370, it is “highly unlikely” that Bayes’ Theorem is being applied.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">That is not to suggest it is totally absent.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Bayes' Theorem is pervasive, and those involved in the current search have applied a certain Bayesian flavour in their search, "but it then got upset when their prior calculations were incorrect,” said statistician Professor Bradley Efron of Stanford University, as quoted by Al Jazeera, referring to the conclusion by Malaysian authorities that the MAS plane could have ended up in the Strait of Malacca.</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', Arial, sans-serif; line-height: 21px; margin-bottom: 10.5px;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Bayes' Theorem, after all, is all about learning from experience, which is probably why Efron said one would need "reasonably accurate past experiences" for the theorem to work. In other words, to calculate accurately to locate the plane. – March 13, 2014.</span></div>
</div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;">==============================================</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">When I first read this news, I was wondering how can Bayes' Theorem can find the missing plane MH370?</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The formula of the Bayes' theorem is stated below:</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9Ou2CqzGirST__BUxIgxKskrWHT8x9l7o_EVuKHHqAcLsZY2BhTp2X120AT_7I-LkxryLPFV20Vs0MxYd7ovbMbIr3jmWwF-PGx-jStGfk7aA85FULkRqrFsp5gmU5R5CJuQ-j0eW1RI/s1600/Baynes'+Theorem.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: justify;"><span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9Ou2CqzGirST__BUxIgxKskrWHT8x9l7o_EVuKHHqAcLsZY2BhTp2X120AT_7I-LkxryLPFV20Vs0MxYd7ovbMbIr3jmWwF-PGx-jStGfk7aA85FULkRqrFsp5gmU5R5CJuQ-j0eW1RI/s1600/Baynes'+Theorem.jpg" /></span></a></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">As mentioned in the press above, the sentence highlighted the key character of this formula is <i>"</i><span style="line-height: 21px;"><i>forcing researchers to change their hypothesis with each new information - that the probability becomes more accurate".</i></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: black; line-height: 21px;"><i><br /></i></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: black;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 21px;">By referring to the prior probability and feeding the posterior probability with new information to ascertain the location of the missing plane. This could be further supported by Laplace's </span><span style="line-height: 1.2em;">Bayesian Probability, i.e. to make a reference analysis in determining the subjective probability and focus on zones that are within the circle of highest in Bayesian Probability.</span></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: black; line-height: 1.2em;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="background-color: black; line-height: 1.2em;"><span style="color: white; font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">I hope the Bayes' Theorem can be applied practically in the searching of the missing plane MH370.</span></span></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-86487599655172385162014-03-13T17:01:00.001+08:002014-03-13T17:01:20.704+08:00My Financial Planning Experience (Part 3)<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">With all the plans in place, the next step was
to set a financial target in the accumulation of a net worth of RM1 million. There
are 2 key variables in the formula of wealth accumulation, i.e. annual savings
and the investment return for the annual savings.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Initially in the 1<sup>st</sup> scenario, I set
an annual saving target of RM10,000 and together with an annual investment
return rate of 10%, I realised I may not be able to achieve the mark of RM1
million within 20 years or before age 40. Below is the illustration that I
could only achieve a networth of approximately RM640,000 within 20 years.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<b><u><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Scenario 1</span><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">In view
of the above, I revised the variable on the annual savings </span><span style="line-height: 115%;">from RM10,000 to
RM20,000, and I would be able to reach the mark of RM1 million in year 18 as
shown in 2</span><sup style="line-height: 115%;">nd</sup><span style="line-height: 115%;"> scenario below:</span></span></div>
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<b><u><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Scenario 2</span><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Well, I was not content with the result of only
achieving the mark of 1<sup>st</sup> million net worth in year 18, I wanted to
make this happens more earlier. So subsequent 2 more scenarios with the
assumptions that I could up the higher annual rate of return to 20% and/or have
my savings increment will inflate at a rate of 3% annually.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Scenario 3</span></span></u></b></div>
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<b><u><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Scenario 4</span><o:p></o:p></span></u></b><br />
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Looks like the 4<sup>th</sup> scenario would be
the ideal plan on meeting my 1<sup>st</sup> pail of gold within 12 years. I was
excited and started to dream that should I not only work hard so I would earn
and save more and have salary/savings increment, but I would also spend time on
doing lot of research in finding good investments with an annual return of 20%,
then I would be able to be a millionaire when I’m at age of 32!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">This year I’m at the age of 31, am I close to be
a millionaire now? Well, things seem not going as planned.</span></span></div>
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<b><u><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></u></b></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-8903596172762677722014-03-06T21:20:00.000+08:002014-03-06T23:21:15.288+08:00My Financial Planning Experience (Part 2)<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I was wondering how could I make a fortune of RM1 million when I began
to work 10 years ago. What can I do to achieve the target? How would I execute plans
to achieve the target? Should I work my ass out to be a top executive in a
company so I would be rewarded high income salary and bonus? Should I become an
entrepreneur in doing my own business or become an active investor? I had no
idea at that juncture.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">During the time I was staying at Wangsa Maju, I used to visit my best
friend who was still studying his diploma at Kajang during the weekend. We
always talked about what would be our future and 1 day he shared me a book and
told me that this could be our future. The name of the book is ‘To be an
intelligent investor’ (</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体;">做个聪明的投资人</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">) written by
John Mark (</span><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体;">麦青远</span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">). This is the book where I came to know Berkshire Hathaway, its CEO
Warren Edward Buffet and value investing, to realise that I can be financial
free by investing into good companies and to find out long-term investment
holding is far more superior than short-term trading.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">As I came to click with the idea of investment as a way to achieve
financial freedom, but I didn’t have any capital to roll for an investment
portfolio. Then I came across to books related to financial planning. "The
Millionaire Next Door" by Thomas J.Stanley and William D. Danko is </span><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;">one of the many books that shaped my <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8275209031622575766" name="_GoBack"></a>philosophy
in financial planning. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">I did try to explain and educate my friends about the the lifestyle to live below our mean. For example,
if I have a salary income of RM3,000 so I can afford to buy a local 'Proton',
I'd still keep using public transportation such as LRT. If my income is RM6,000
and I can afford to buy a foreign branded car like 'Vios', but I choose to own
a local 'Myvi'. Indeed, I had only bought a car when I turned 30 in year 2012
(which was 10 years after I started my first job) and changed to a job that
requires me to drive for meeting at outstations. Having said so, I will only
drive my car for meetings that not beyond 300 KM away from my PJ house
otherwise I'd demand the company to pay me to take on flight, and I still
regularly take LRT with free shuttle GO KL to my office. I only pakai my car when I need travel outstation, going back hometown or meeting friends. Even until today after 18 months I bought the car, the mileage of my car is lower than 9,000 KM.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Another practice I adopt to manage my finances is to 'pay myself first'.
Whenever I get paid of my salary, I will put aside a portion of my net salary
in a different savings account from the account that I use to receive my
salary. When I start to apply this practice, the portion I put aside was 10% of
my net salary, I adjust the percentage according to the scale of my disposable
income. Currently I'm working in a non-profit organisation and thus getting
much lesser income, but I still practise 'paying myself' with 30% out of my
current salary income. Should I still continue to work in the commercial, I'd
have higher disposable income up and hence would be able to 'pay myself' up to
50%.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">With these practices, I nurture a habit that allow me to save for future
spending or investment disregard I'm earning high or low income. When I save
enough emergency fund which is about 6-month of my monthly expenses, the subsequent
savings would be allocated to another savings account just to get myself prepare
to grasp any investing opportunities. When we have the bullet, it's time to go
for hunting.</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-35498833742544772392014-03-05T16:21:00.001+08:002014-03-05T16:21:29.739+08:00My Financial Planning Experience (Part 1)<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">When I graduated from Victoria University of Wellington in December 2003, I had only NZ$300 left in my pocket. I spent NZ$200 to treat my friends a good meal and bought them farewell gifts before I returned to Kuala Lumpur (KL) the next day after I attended the graduate ceremony. In addition, I graduated with a study loan of RM50,000 which would require me to commit for monthly repayment 1 year after my graduation. At that moment, I was just a naïve 20-year old fresh graduate without knowing which direction I would be heading to.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">In KL, I was staying with my elder brother who was still studying in Help College and we were staying at Damansara Heights (DH). Rental expenses in DH was as high as RM500/room. My brother took care of the rental, then I took care my own spending on meals, transportation and other spending. My first job was financial planning attached with AIG and I quit the job in 2 months as I realized I couldn’t do sales of insurance. During these 2 months, my new cell phone and expenses in meal cost me close to RM1,000, which exceeded my remain leftover NZ$100 (approximately RM200), so I had to borrow from my father to cover the short change.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="EN-US">Eventually I was offered to be a Graduate Trainee Officer (WTF, GTO!?) in April 2004 </span><span lang="EN-US"> </span>by the Securities Commission (SC) and attached to the corporate finance department of a merchant bank. As a GTO, I did not receive salary but allowance of RM750 from the SC, and this GTO program lasted for a year. Few months after I commenced the work as GTO, my brother graduated from his study and he was moving out from DH. By then, I had to support myself in KL with a pathetic allowance of RM750.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">I subsequently shifted to Wangsa Maju and rented a place to sleep at a cost of RM100/month. I shared a room with 4 fellows. Life was tough, but I was still able to save RM50/month for repayment to my dad. Until today, I'm still proud that I could save RM50 with an income of RM750 only, and most of my friends didn’t believe of my RM50 savings/month.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">I still recalled the breakdown of living expenses during the time when I was earning RM750. There was no EPF because the amount was allowance instead of salary income.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Income: RM750</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Rental: (RM100)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Food: (RM360)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Phone/Internet: (RM50)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Transportation/LRT: (RM90)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Fund to parents: (RM50)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Insurance: (RM50)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Net Savings: RM50<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: large;">Everything seemed settled except my study loan coming due for monthly repayment in year 2005. As my family was poor and my parents are retiree and not able to lend any more financial support to me, I had to find my way out or else I'd be in financial woe.</span></span></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-56608795928364078292014-03-04T20:36:00.002+08:002014-03-04T20:39:20.415+08:00Forward: Warren Buffett’s Brand-New Advice on How to Get Rich<div style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #222222; direction: ltr; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.3em; margin-bottom: 17px; padding: 0px;">
<a href="http://www.fool.sg/2014/03/03/warren-buffetts-brand-new-advice-on-how-to-get-rich/?source=s76yhocs0070001">http://www.fool.sg/2014/03/03/warren-buffetts-brand-new-advice-on-how-to-get-rich/?source=s76yhocs0070001</a></div>
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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Two small investments Warren Buffett made more than two decades ago can teach us all something about how we should view our money.</span></div>
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Each year, investors anxiously await the annual report from <b style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">Berkshire Hathaway</b>, which contains a letter from Buffett that contains indispensable insight into the decisions he’s made both over the last year and his entire life.</div>
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His letter for 2013 has just been released over the weekend and in it, Buffett outlines how two small real estate investments he made more than 20 years ago that can prepare everyone for a future of success.</div>
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<b style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">The investments</b></div>
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Buffett describes his 1986 purchase of a 400-acre farm 50 miles north of Omaha, Nebraska, in the USA. Just a few years prior, farmland in Nebraska and the entire Midwest was booming, but a bursting of the bubble caused prices to decline rapidly. Buffett was able to buy the land for US$280,000, which was <i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">“considerably less”</i> than what a failed bank valued it a few years earlier.</div>
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While Buffett notes he <i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">“knew nothing about operating a farm,” </i>he enlisted the help of a son – who was an avid farmer himself – and the two estimated the return on the investment would be 10% annually.</div>
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He then describes the purchase of a <i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">“small investment”</i> – the price wasn’t mentioned – of a retail property in New York City that was next to New York University in 1993. He joined two other friends to buy the property following the collapse of the commercial real estate bubble and once again estimated he could earn about 10% each year.</div>
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As typical with Buffett, he is somewhat muted on what he has actually made from the initial investments, but notes, “<i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">The farm has tripled its earnings and is worth five times or more what I paid,”</i> and he now receives 35% of his initial investment in the real estate property annually in the form of distributions.</div>
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Although the investments were small – Berkshire Hathaway had a book value of more than US$2 billion in 1986 and almost US$9 billion in 1993 – and he has never seen the property in New York and visited the farmland only twice, Buffett notes that <i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">“the two investments will be solid and satisfactory holdings for my lifetime and, subsequently, for my children and grandchildren.”</i></div>
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<b style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">The lessons</b></div>
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First, Buffett says<i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">, “You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns,” </i>and a recognition of personal limits while ensuring things are kept simple navigating along a <i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">“course certain to work reasonably well”</i> is critical.</div>
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He adds that when an investment decision is made, it’s always critical to evaluate <i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">“future productivity”</i> to determine if it’s a worthwhile investment. If an investor is unable to gauge a<i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">“rough estimate”</i> of what the future return of the investment is, Buffett says the best step is to simply <i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">“forget it and move on.”</i></div>
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Buffett continues by highlighting that he focuses on productivity, not price, which is a critical distinction. Often investors are lulled into thinking it’s only the price that matters, but prices are merely speculations of a value, whereas the productivity of a business is where the actual value is created.</div>
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The final lesson Buffett extols from these two small investments is that he didn’t consider the broader macroeconomic or market predictions from others because those <i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">“may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important.”</i></div>
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Next, he says speculation surrounding future price and daily prices are superfluous when making a decision. Again, he harps on the truth that he <i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">“thought only of what the properties would produce and cared not at all about their daily valuations.”</i></div>
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<b style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">Changing your life</b></div>
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In all five points, Buffett highlights things that can be taught to all investors, both those in real estate and those preparing for retirement through the stock market.</div>
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Investments are to be made in businesses that generate returns to their investors, not simply the names and numbers of stock tickers. For instance, the <a href="https://www.fool.sg/2014/01/23/how-to-turn-5000-into-20-million/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185290; line-height: inherit; text-decoration: none;">great multi-bagger returns over the past 22 years</a> from blue chips in Singapore like <b style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">Keppel Corporation</b>(SGX: BN4), <b style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">Jardine Cycle & Carriage </b>(SGX: C07) and <b style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">United Overseas Bank </b>(SGX: U11) did not happen in isolation; they came about <a href="https://www.fool.sg/2014/01/23/how-to-turn-5000-into-20-million/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #185290; line-height: inherit; text-decoration: none;">due to great growth in profits</a> (i.e. an increase in the businesses’ productivity).</div>
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While it is easy to be swayed by daily trends, long-term investments at reasonable prices are always a winning formula. And if that sounds too daunting or difficult, Buffett says a very low-cost index fund is a wonderful solution.</div>
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Buffett concludes by reminding readers of his oft-repeated but immensely valuable advice he learned from his professor and mentor Ben Graham: “<i style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: inherit;">Price is what you pay; value is what you get,” </i>which is something everyone must remember when making any investment.</div>
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kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-77647529183764131122014-03-03T19:15:00.001+08:002014-03-03T19:15:50.320+08:00Forward: DREAM COME TRUE! Buying a Ferrari for the price of a VW<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 19px;">SINGAPORE - Forget market trends. Forget market timing. If one believes that the global economy will be stronger in five years' time, the present is always the best time to invest in shares.</span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">That view comes from someone who remains fully invested in stocks even as volatility roils markets around the world.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">For Mr David Kuo, chief executive of Motley Fool Singapore - a portal that offers stock market and investing information - the ability to recognise a good company, one that is run by strong management, is more important than timing investment market trends.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">With that skill, the investor is always ready to jump in when a stock looks undervalued.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Unlike investors who believe that only high-growth companies can generate exceptional returns, Mr Kuo watches out for businesses that are "valued by the market at 50 cents, but are really worth a dollar".</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">As he puts it, he is "looking for a Ferrari that's selling for the price of a Volkswagen".</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">"That rarely happens when the market is trending higher, which probably makes me a contrarian."</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; color: blue; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; color: blue; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The secret to high returns…</span></span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Is compounding capital growth and reinvested dividends.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I have a portfolio of good stocks that gives me plenty of opportunities to add money to.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Any cash that I don't need for the next five to seven years is generally put to work in the stock market. I just keep adding money to the companies that I like.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I am fully invested, which means that the only cash in my portfolio comes from regular dividends.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I am not a fan of fixed income, and property is too troublesome to manage.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Property can take too long to liquidate and can't be easily sold, brick by brick.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">My only exposure to property is through Reits (real estate investment trusts) and the roof over my head.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; color: blue; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; color: blue; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">My investment strategy is…</span></span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I started investing in stocks in my 20s. At the time, buying and selling were done over the phone, and getting information about companies took ages. But poring over company accounts in annual reports was a good learning experience.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Most people start out trying various investing techniques before settling on one particular style that suits their temperament and personality.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I was no different and, in my case, it turned out to be income investing. To me, it is logical, it can be rewarding and, if you pardon the pun, it pays dividends.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; color: blue; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; color: blue; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Investing is a business…</span></span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">I am a great believer in capitalism, in allocating capital in an efficient way to achieve an acceptable rate of return.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Not many of us will have the opportunity or the resources to run our own business. But when I invest in a business, I become a part-owner. I am not involved in the day-to-day running of the business, but that doesn't mean I can't be interested in how the business is being run or enjoy the rewards when the business does well.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; color: blue; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; color: blue; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">What should one do or have to be a successful investor?</span></span></strong></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Investing is not difficult.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The one skill to attain is how to recognise a good company when you see one. When you do, don't ever let it go, whatever the market might say.</span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Likewise, having the patience and the ability to stick to an investment strategy is important.</span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Some of the most boring and mundane companies can generate some of the most lucrative returns - if you are patient.</span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Within the Straits Times Index, firms such as Keppel Corp, Sembcorp Industries and SIA Engineering have delivered, on average, annual double-digit returns since the turn of the millennium.</span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">During the dotcom boom, I mistakenly believed that the world was entering a new paradigm and invested in a company that eventually went bust.</span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">The point is, there is no such thing as a new paradigm. The old rules always apply. If a company has too much debt or if it is making losses, then chances are it will go bust.</span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Many think they can dance in and out of the market and use fancy mathematical formulas and theorems to profit from shares.</span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">It just doesn't work. The most profitable investment is the one that you understand best.</span></span></div>
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<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; color: blue; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></strong></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="border: 0px; color: blue; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">What shouldn't one do?</span></span></strong></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Never borrow money to buy shares. Leveraging - using other people's money - can amplify your gains, but it can also magnify your losses; the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.</span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="border: 0px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 19px; margin-top: 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.3em; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">Overtrading is another thing to avoid. Buying and selling incur costs, and every cent of cost paid out is a cent that could be earning you money in the market. -Asiaone</span></span></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 19px;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 19px;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large; line-height: 19px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
Full article: <a href="http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=235951:dream-come-true-buying-a-ferrari-for-the-price-of-a-vw&Itemid=3#itemCommentsAnchor#ixzz2utgm7r8J" style="border: 0px; color: #003399; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=235951:dream-come-true-buying-a-ferrari-for-the-price-of-a-vw&Itemid=3#itemCommentsAnchor#ixzz2utgm7r8J</a> </div>
</span></span>kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-73118680044694826282014-02-17T09:39:00.004+08:002014-02-17T09:40:21.637+08:00Formula for a retirement fund<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">In my opinion, the amount of retirement fund should be formulated as follows:</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">= <b><span style="color: red;">Yearly Expenses / Expected Annual Return Rate (%)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Giving an example by assuming yearly expenses for a family of 3 (parents and a new born kid) to retire comfortably in Kuala Lumpur to be RM100,000 (approximate RM8,300 monthly) which include repayment of housing and car loans, and also the most prudent annual return rate of the fund for the family depends on fixed-deposit rate of 3%, then the family should accumulate a retirement fund of RM3.33 million, which is about 33 times of their yearly expenses (1/3%).</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">From the formulated I quoted above, should you be able either reducing yearly expenses or increasing expected annual return rate, then you would only need a smaller fund for retirement. Remember, the smaller the retirement fund, then the easier to achieve and retire earlier.</span></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-28948698315781943732014-02-13T21:35:00.000+08:002014-02-13T21:59:11.229+08:00How to estimate future growth rate? 如何预测未来增长率?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">当我们要预测未来的增长率,有好几种方法,通常比较准确的会用复杂的定量方法</span>(Quantitative
Methods)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">比如时间序列</span>(Time
Series)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">来估计未来值。</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_series"><span style="font-size: large;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_series</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">时间序列</span>(Time
Series)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">有很多种方法,最常见的有</span>5<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">种:</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">指数平滑法</span>(Exponential
Smoothing<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,</span>ES)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_smoothing"><span style="font-size: large;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_smoothing</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">自回归滑动平均模型</span>(Autoregressive
Moving Average, ARMA)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_moving_average"><span style="font-size: large;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_moving_average</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">差分自回归滑动平均模型</span>(Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_integrated_moving_average"><span style="font-size: large;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_integrated_moving_average</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">自回归条件异方差模型</span>(Autoregressive
conditional heteroskedasticity model, ARCH)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_conditional_heteroskedasticity"><span style="font-size: large;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_conditional_heteroskedasticity</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">广义自回归条件异方差模型</span>(Generalized
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, GARCH)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GARCH#GARCH"><span style="font-size: large;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GARCH#GARCH</span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">这些方法都是根据统计系统观测得到的数据估计法,并纠正了统计数据里的一些样本容量误差</span>(Sample
Size Error)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,异常值</span>(Outlier)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">和周期性的变化</span>(Seasonal
Volatility)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">但我认为以上那些方法太过复杂耗时,因此还是用比较简单的统计法比如简易平均值法</span>(Simple
Average)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">来算出未来值。</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">用个例子以过去</span>5<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年营业额</span>(Revenue)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">增长率再用</span>Simple
Average<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">值来算出未来的增长率:</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2009 = 5%</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2010 = 6%</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2011 = 80%</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2012 = -1%</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2013 = 12%</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Future Growth Rate = (5% + 6% + 80% - 1% + 12%)/5 = 20.4%</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">由于</span>2011<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的增长率为</span>80%<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">可被认为是反常的异数</span>(Abnormal<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,</span>Outlier)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,那也可以将</span>2011<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的数据排除以得出未来增长率。</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Adjusted Future Growth Rate = (5% + 6% - 1% + 12%)/4 = 5.5%</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">5.5%<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">视乎较为合理的反映未来的增长。然而我认为</span>Simple
Average<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">有个不足的一点是因为它是等权重</span>(Equally
Weighted)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,意味着过去</span>5<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的每一年增长率都是对未来值的影响程度是对等的,这可有点不够实用。我认为最近几年的数值对未来值的影响最大,而较远之前的数值的影响最小,就想到了用加权平均法</span>(Weighted
Average)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">来估算未来值。</span>Weighted
Average<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的算法是为每年各自设定能反映它们对未来的比重因子(Weighted Factor),将各自的比重乘于它们各自的增长率,然后将这些加权增长率总和算出未来值。以下是</span>Weighted
Average<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的算法</span>:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2009 = 5% (Weighted Factor = 1)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2010 = 6% (Weighted Factor = 2)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2011 = 80% (Weighted Factor = 3)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2012 = -1% (Weighted Factor = 4)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2013 = 12% (Weighted Factor = 5)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Total Weighted Factor = (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5) = 15</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Future Growth Rate = [(1 * 5%)/15] + [(2 * 6%)/15] + [(3* 80%)/15]
- [(4 * 1%)/15] + [(5 * 12%)/15] = 20.87%</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">如果将</span>2011<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年异常的</span>80%<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">增长率排除出去,那调整的</span>Weighted
Average<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">算法如下:</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2009 = 5% (Weighted Factor = 1)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2010 = 6% (Weighted Factor = 2)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2011 = 80% (Weighted Factor = 0)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2012 = -1% (Weighted Factor = 3)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">2013 = 12% (Weighted Factor = 4)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Total Weighted Factor = (1 + 2 + 3 + 4) = 10</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;">Adjusted Future Growth Rate = [(1 * 5%)/10] + [(2 * 6%)/10]
+ [(0 * 80%)/10] - [(3 * 1%)/10] + [(4 * 12%)/10] = 6.2%</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">可以看出</span>Adjusted
Weighted Average<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">算出的未来值是</span>6.2%<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">跟</span>Adjusted
Simple Average<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">算出的</span>5.5%<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">是有些差距的。我认为</span>Adjusted
Weighted Average<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">算出来的数值能反映出现实中较能持续的数值,所以我将这种未来估计法称为‘可持续加权平均法’</span>(Maintainable
Weighted Average)<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: large;">还有我要强调的就是统计学毕竟是以过去数据为依据来算出未来值,但是如果公司面临着结构性的改变就意味着以往所经历过的数据不一定会在将来重复,所以请勿死板的用方程模式来算未来值,要懂得变通做出弹性的调整。请记住约翰.梅纳德.凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)曾说过‘我宁愿要模糊的正确也不要精确的错误'("It's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong")</span><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: large;">。</span></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-84449905365576839062014-02-13T16:34:00.000+08:002014-02-13T16:34:15.587+08:00Forward: How to retire early — 35 years early (转载: 如何提前35年退休?)<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-retire-early-35-years-early-2014-01-17?pagenumber=1" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">How to retire early — 35 years early</span></a> </span></b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-retire-early-35-years-early-2014-01-17?pagenumber=1"><span style="color: blue;">http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-retire-early-35-years-early-2014-01-17?pagenumber=1</span></a></span></b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">For many Americans, the idea of an early retirement is pure
fantasy — many surveys suggest that a good portion of us are convinced we’ll
never be able to retire at all. But what if retirement saving isn’t quite as
insurmountable an obstacle as you think?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The idea that retirement — even early retirement — is within
anyone’s grasp is a big part of the appeal of a popular personal-finance blog
called “Mr. Money Mustache,” written by a 39-year-old man named Pete, who lives
with his wife and 8-year-old son in Longmont, Colo. (The blog recently had
417,000 monthly unique visitors, and has had a total of 4 million unique
visitors since it launched in April 2011.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Pete, who prefers not to divulge his last name to protect his
family’s privacy, retired when he was just 30. His wife retired with him, and
for the past nine years they’ve been stay-at-home parents. Their investment
income supports their lifestyle, but they also work when they want, on their
own terms.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">One secret to their success? They live on very little for a
family of three: about $25,000 a year. They own a car, but mostly bike. Dining
out is an occasional luxury. And shopping for stuff? That’s best avoided. But
their philosophy goes beyond mere scrimping, says Mr. Money Mustache. It’s
about enjoying life with less.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">MarketWatch asked Mr. Money Mustache about his philosophy on
spending, how he retired early, and his take on retirement planning. Our
Q&A is below. And if you’re wondering about the name?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">“Mr. Money Mustache is meant to be a bit of a character — a
financial superhero,” Pete said. “He’s me, but a slightly bossier and more
opinionated version of me. I find that people gladly obey the commandments of
Mr. Money Mustache, even while they would scoff if plain old Pete, the former
software engineer, stepped up and started giving them advice.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">How old were you when you decided to try to retire early, and how
long did it take you to get to the point where you could retire?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It was a gradual process. I brought some frugal instincts along
with me from childhood, so I always tended to save a bit of money rather than
spending it all. My wife has been a pretty reasonable spender since the time we
met, as well. So I graduated from college in 1997, we eventually moved in
together, and, after several years of full-time work, some cash was starting to
build up in our investment accounts, and we wondered if there was something
useful we could do with it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Sometime around 2002, we decided we wanted to be parents
eventually, and that it would be great if we could retire from our relatively
demanding careers in the tech industry before any babies came along. This
really increased our motivation to spend less and invest more, and we cranked
things up. At the end of 2005, our savings were sufficient to generate passive
income that we could theoretically live off forever, so we quit the regular
jobs and have been winging it ever since. And we now have an amazing
8-year-old-boy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">How did you decide how much money was enough to retire?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Based on a long-lasting hobby of reading books on stock
investing, I realized that you can generally count on your nest egg to deliver
a 4% return over most of a lifetime, with a good chance of it never running
out. In other words, you need about 25 times your annual spending to retire. So
we tracked our spending and our net worth, and when we hit the magic number we
declared ourselves “retired.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">Did you have a written retirement plan in place early on, or more
of a ballpark figure you were trying to save up?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">We did most of the saving before we knew all that much about
early retirement. But once the picture became a bit clearer, we had a clearer
goal. For the last few years, the mantra was “$600,000 in investments, plus a
paid-off house.” This is enough to generate $24,000 of spending money, which
goes quite far if you have no rent or mortgage to pay.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">How important is it for people to have a written retirement plan,
in your opinion?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It doesn’t matter to me if it’s written, verbal or mental. But I
do encourage people to open their minds to how real and possible an early
retirement can be. It isn’t a vague, fluffy concept like, “someday,” “never” or
“when I’m 65.” Retirement (or financial independence) simply means that you
have your living expenses covered by nonwork income. In the worst case, this
requires 25 to 30 times your annual spending, socked away into investments. If
you’re eligible for a pension or Social Security, it’s even easier.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">Do you work with a financial planner or manage your finances on
your own?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">I have always enjoyed managing my own finances. On the blog, I
maintain a good-natured battle with the financial-planning industry in general,
because they focus too much on retiring at a very old age with many millions in
savings — just so you can continue to spend $100,000 a year until you die. It
is much more efficient to get a handle on your materialism and spending so you
can live more happily on a fraction of that amount, which can shave 20 years or
more from the time you need to keep commuting in to that office.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">How crucial is it, in your opinion, for people to have a monthly
or annual spending plan or budget?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">This really depends on your personality type. I’ve never had a
spending plan or a budget at any point in my own life. Instead, it was a simple
set of values to apply just before I make any purchase or commit to any
expense: “Is this the best possible use for this chunk of money, if my goal is
creating lifelong happiness for myself?”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Since I valued freedom and financial strength, this
automatically ruled out quite a few purchases. For example, as a young man I
was a major car enthusiast. But I didn’t run out to borrow money to buy an
Acura NSX, because I valued having that money for other things more than I
valued a fancy car. Nowadays I can finally afford a car like that without even
borrowing, but I am happy to discover that the desire has disappeared.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">Some people might think so much cost-cutting is akin to living
like Scrooge and not having any fun. How would you respond to that?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">If you tell yourself that is how it will be, then you will
create your own truth and life will not be fun. But if you understand the
fundamentals of what it means to be a happy person, you realize that buying
more stuff for yourself has no relationship at all to how happy you are. These
fundamentals include things like close relationships with other people, health,
rewarding work, a chance to be creative and help others.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Work on those things and you’ll start living a much better life
immediately, and soon wonder where the odd compulsion to own a yacht with a
submarine came from in your old self.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">Surveys suggest there are a lot of people out there who are
worried about retiring, who don’t have enough money saved, who feel like they
may never retire. Can you offer people in that situation any words of advice in
terms of how to turn their situation around?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The quickest way to turn things around is to realize that you
are in much more control than you realize. The time to reach retirement depends
on only one thing: your savings rate as a percentage of your take-home pay. And
this depends entirely on how much you spend. So the moment you can learn to
live a less expensive life, suddenly the clouds clear up and the financial
picture brightens considerably.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">What would you say to someone in his 50s or 60s who maybe doesn’t
have any credit-card debt, but is paying a mortgage and has about $100,000
saved for retirement? Is there any scenario where that person would be able to
retire in, say, his early 60s?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">That’s not a great starting point, but the turnaround can be
incredibly fast once you realize where your money has been leaking out and
change your life so that you can save much more of your income. Ten to 15 years
is plenty of time for most people to go from zero to financial independence, so
with a $100,000 head start and the kids all out of the house, this 55-year-old
might be in a good place. Adding in Social Security income, the time to
retirement would be even faster.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">Do you think that the rule of thumb of needing about 85% of
pre-retirement income in retirement is accurate, useful, dangerous, innocuous?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">This is a good guideline for people who currently spend almost
everything they earn, and plan to continue that habit in retirement. But for
the rest of us, it is ridiculous!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A much more useful idea is to separate the idea of income from
that of spending. Your income is determined by what you do for a living. But
your spending should be decided based on your needs — the things and
experiences that truly make you happy. As an example, my family’s needs and
wants have always ended up adding to about $25,000 a year. So that’s how much
we spent, whether we were making $25,000 or $200,000.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So as soon as our retirement income safely exceeded $25,000 a
year, we were financially independent and we decided to retire.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">I hate to get morbid, but the idea of how long one is going to
live is sort of a crucial piece to a retirement plan. How are you handling this
impossible-to-answer-yet-essential question? Are annuities and/or
long-term-care insurance part of your long-term financial plan?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">If you plan your retirement right, your expected longevity might
actually have nothing to do with your planning. This is because the amount of
money required to fund a 30-year retirement is almost identical to the amount
to fund a person forever — an odd behavior of the equation for amortization of
a large sum of money.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">I’m not into annuities or any type of insurance myself, although
those products do have value for some. Both of those ideas are based on
statistics and probabilities, and when you do the math you can actually be
safer handling things yourself. With a big enough collection of
income-producing assets (stocks, rental property, etc.), your savings will
easily outlive you, and probably be much larger by the time you die. This big
chunk of savings also allows you to pay for unexpected expenses without rocking
the boat too much — you have many years to adjust if you do hit a bump that
forces you to deplete part of it for something like a medical expense.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">You have said in the past that it’s important to “make your
dollars work for you.” Does that mean the idea of an emergency savings account
at the bank is overrated? Should people be investing more of their savings in
the financial markets, via a taxable account, rather than using bank accounts?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Yeah, I’ve always questioned the idea of an emergency fund. It’s
a great tool for the financial beginner who lives from paycheck to paycheck,
and for whom a broken water heater would make the difference between making
ends meet and borrowing via a credit card. But once you get off the ground,
your credit card is a monthly buffer and your investment accounts are the
emergency fund.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So I have no savings account at all, and keep just a few
thousand dollars in the checking account. If a huge unexpected expense ever
came up that was greater than my income, I would put it on the credit card
along with all other monthly spending. Then just sell some shares of an index
fund and transfer that back to the bank before the credit-card automatic
payment happened at the end of the month. And I’ve still never had to run a
credit-card balance in my life.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The great part is that if your spending is much lower than your
income, these emergencies become very rare, because there is always a surplus,
which you have to sweep away into investments each month. So if the water
heater dies, you buy a new one and just invest a little bit less that month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">To what degree would you say rental income was key to your ability
to retire early?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A small degree — I haven’t had the most brilliant landlord
career so far, so my results have been only average. But rental properties
chosen wisely can return much more than stocks, which could really speed up a
savvy person’s retirement program. In my own case, I probably saved only about
one year of work by using rental houses along with stocks.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">Would you say it’s better to use extra savings to pay down one’s
mortgage, or to invest in the financial markets?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">For people in a high tax bracket, 401(k) plans in low-fee index
funds win this battle pretty easily, especially if there is an employer match.
For investment in taxable nonretirement accounts, it all depends on the
interest rate (and if you’re pretty well-versed in investing, the stock
market’s valuation or P/E 10 ratio).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Right now, with stocks expensive and <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/Subjects/Interest_Rates?lc=int_mb_1001"><span style="color: #004176;">interest rates</span></a></span> very low, it’s
probably a somewhat uninspiring tie, in my opinion, and you could do either.
But if mortgage interest rates were 6% or more, I’d start getting more excited
about paying off a house.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">For people with other debts, like student loans, car loans or
credit-card debt, at higher rates, I’d prioritize debt payoff even more.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">It sounds as though a lot of your success has to do with cutting
costs. But I know that some of my readers are really tired of hearing the “cut
out the lattes” idea. What would you say to those readers?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">For most people, cutting costs is by far the most powerful way
to increase wealth. This is because it is easy to burn off almost any amount of
money — just ask the 78% of NFL players that have financial problems shortly
after turning off the cash fire hose of a pro sports career. It is also
possible to cut almost any budget in half, leaving the happy latte cutter
saving 50% or more of her income.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">But the key to making this work is not cutting out treats — it’s
eliminating your desire for those treats in the first place. Driving my 2005
Scion hatchback would be a chore if I had a desire for a 2014 BMW. But since
this little Scion is more than enough car for all of my wants (and I usually
ride a bike anyway), I am actually winning and living a happier life even while
saving $20,000 a year in depreciation and other costs. The handy part of all
this is that anyone can eliminate the desire for any of the expensive luxuries
currently dominating most of our spending.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">Do you have any sorts of items you love to buy and won’t give up?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">That’s a tricky question, because our lifestyle does include
quite a few luxuries that are fun to have around. I enjoy nice coffee at
breakfast and wine many nights at dinner, and the food we eat is very high-end
these days. And we live in a pretty fancy house full of nice stuff and take a
lot of trips. While I enjoy all of these things, I also make fun of myself for
living such a decadent lifestyle, as a reminder that none of these things are
essential components of happiness. I would give them up in a heartbeat if we
couldn’t afford them — for example if we were in debt or if they compromised
our ability to live a free life. But since life is an adventure and there is no
need to seek perfection, we dabble in all of the normal treats of American
life.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">You write a lot about doing things oneself — including being your
own handyman. What would you say to people who feel they aren’t good at fixing
things and aren’t confident enough to work on their own homes? Is home
maintenance going to be a budget killer for them?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">You get better at what you do. I think that every homeowner,
with possible exceptions for very busy CEOs and rock stars, should be able to
take care of a house and can easily learn how to do it. Outsourcing these basic
chores is expensive and fussy — it often takes more time to find and supervise
a contractor than it takes to do the job yourself.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The key is starting with the assumption that everything is easy,
because it is. Then you just grab a book from the library and watch a few
YouTube videos on the topic, and dive in. You can also attend the free
workshops at <span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; padding: 0cm;"><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/companies/Home_Depot?lc=int_mb_1001"><span style="color: #004176;">Home Depot</span></a></span> and ask for help from
the handy people within your network of friends. People generally love to help
others, and I spend a lot of my own free time giving free home-renovation
advice and help to my own friends when they ask for it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">When it comes to spending, what about travel to foreign lands? A
no-no because of the steep expense?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 16.5pt; margin-bottom: 10.5pt; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Travel can be as expensive or as inexpensive as you choose to
make it. We do quite a bit of it these days, spending every summer in Canada
and a good part of last winter in Hawaii, with other trips to quite a few other
countries in recent years as well. But if you live like a local once you get
there, going for the slow and authentic experience rather than flashy hotels
and bungee jumping every day, it costs a lot less. One of my favorite trips was
a winter driving trip from Colorado down to the Gulf Coast, where we brought
along a tent and a kayak and hung out on as many beaches and waterways as we
could find in the tropical belt of Texas for a month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="border: none windowtext 1.0pt; color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-border-alt: none windowtext 0cm; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; padding: 0cm;">Why did you start your blog?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It was a 50/50 mix of inspiration and exasperation. My wife and
I retired from real work at the end of 2005, but all of our friends and peers
kept working around us. As their careers blossomed and earnings grew, I kept
hearing these complaints about money being tight and retirement being an
impossibility. But looking at their lifestyles, I could see exactly where the
money was leaking out unproductively — even while they seemed to be missing it.
So I decided to start the blog and share the ideas with the world, rather than
annoying friends with unrequested financial advice.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20140213/inv072625.asp?source=newsletter" target="_blank">如何提前35年退休?</a></div>
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<a href="http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20140213/inv072625.asp?source=newsletter" target="_blank">http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20140213/inv072625.asp?source=newsletter</a></div>
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对</div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">于很多美国人来说,提前退休的想法纯粹是痴心梦想——不少调查显示,我们当中很大一部分人深信我们永远也退不了休。但假如退休储蓄金并不像你想象的那样是一个难以逾越的障碍的话,又会是什么样的情形呢?</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">人人都可以实现退休,甚至提前退休,这个想法是倍受追捧的个人理财博客“钱胡子先生”(Mr. Money Mustache)的主要魅力所在。博客作者是一名名叫皮特(Pete)的39岁男子,他和他妻子及八岁的儿子一起住在科罗拉多州的朗蒙特(Longmont, Colo.)。(该博客最近的月独立访客数量达到了41.7万人,而自2011年4月发表博客以来独立访客总数已达到400万。)</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /></div>
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<img alt="" border="0" src="http://cn.wsj.com/photo/MW-BS752_Retire_20140116143439_MD.jpg" title="Mr. Money Mustac" /><div style="color: #666666; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11px; margin: 2px 0px 4px; text-align: right;">
Mr. Money Mustac</div>
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想提前退休吗?“钱胡子先生”说,是时候重新制定支出计划了。</div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">为保护家庭隐私而不想透露姓氏的皮特刚满30岁就退休了。他的妻子是与他一道退休的。在过去的九年时间里,他们一直在家做全职父母。他们的投资收益提供了生活保障,但是他们想工作的时候也去上班,一切全由他们自己做主。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">他们成功做到这一点有何秘诀吗?他们的生活费用对于一个三口之家来说十分拮据:一年大约25,000美元(约合人民币152,696元)。他们有一辆汽车,但多数时候骑自行车。外出就餐是偶尔的奢侈之举。购物呢?这也最好避免。但钱胡子先生说,他们的理念不仅仅是精打细算,这是一种用更少的花销享受生活的哲学。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">《市场观察》(MarketWatch)专栏向钱胡子先生询问了他的消费理念、他是如何提前退休的以及他在退休规划上的见解。下面是我们之间的问与答。你是否对钱胡子这个名字感到好奇呢?</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span id="NewAd" style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;"></span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">“钱胡子先生这个名字意在树立一个有点与众不同的人物形象——一名理财上的超级英雄,”皮特说,“钱胡子先生就是我,但却是一个更爱发号施令、更固执己见的我。我发现人们很乐意遵从钱胡子先生的指令,而如果是其貌不扬的老皮特(一名前软件工程师)走上前来开始给他们提供建议时,他们肯定会奚落他。”</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">你决定提前退休的时候年龄有多大?你花了多长时间来实现你可以退休的条件?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">那是一个渐进的过程。我从小就有勤俭节约的本能,因此我总是倾向于存点钱而不是把钱花光。我妻子从我们相遇时开始也一直是一个非常理性的消费者。因此在我1997年大学毕业后,我们最终搬到了一起。做了几年的全职工作之后,我们的投资账户里开始积累了一些资金,我们就想,我们是否可以用这些钱来做点有用的事情。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">2002年左右,我们最终决定想要为人父母,而如果我们能在孩子降生之前就从我们那要求相对较高的技术行业退休的话,那简直太好了。这种想法确实增加了我们减少支出、增加投资的动机,于是我们着手行动起来。到2005年底的时候,我们攒下来的钱产生的被动收益从理论上讲足以永远维持我们的生计了,因此我们辞去了正式的工作,自那以后就随性而为。现在我们的儿子不可思议地都已八岁了。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">你们是如何确定要多少钱才足以退休的?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">由于有阅读股票投资方面书籍的长期爱好,我意识到一般说来,你可以指望你的储蓄金在人生的大部分时间里产生4%的回报,这样它很可能是永远花不完的。换句话说,若要退休,你需要的资金大约是你年度开支的25倍。因此,我们对我们的花销和我们的资产 值进行了跟踪记录,当我们达到了那个神奇的数字时,我们就宣布自己“退休了”。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">你们最早是制定了书面的退休计划呢还是只粗略估计了一下要努力积攒的资金数量?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">大部分的钱是在我们弄明白提前退休那些事情之前攒下来的,但是一旦情况变得稍微明朗了一点,我们就有了更明确的目标。在过去的几年里,退休的愿景是“拥有60万美元(约合人民币363万元)的投资,加上一套已偿清贷款的房子”。这就足以产生24,000美元(约合人民币145,250元)的花销费用了,如果你没有房租或按揭贷款需要支付的话,这笔钱可以支撑很长时间。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">在你看来,人们制定书面退休计划的重要性有多大?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">退休计划是书面的、口头的还是心中的在我看来并不重要,但我的确要鼓励大家开放思想,看到提前退休是一件现实而且可能的事情。它不是一个类似“某一天”、“永不可能”或“等我65岁的时候”这样的模糊、空洞的概念。退休(或者说经济独立)的意思不外乎是说你的生活费用由非工作收入负担。在最差的情况下,要求的资金是你年度开销的25到30倍,这笔资金要用于投资。如果你有资格获得养老金或社会保障金,事情就更容易。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">你是和理财规划师一块儿合作还是自己独立管理财务?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">我一直都喜欢自己独立管理财务。在博客上,我和整个理财行业在进行着一场善意的角逐,因为他们过度注重在很老的年纪拥有了数以百万计的积蓄之后退休——正因为如此,你可以到去世为止每年花费10万美元(约合人民币60.5万元)。效率高得多的做法是你自己能够掌控你的物欲追求及花销,这样你能够以那笔资金的很少一部分数量更快乐地生活,那可以减少你当通勤一族到单位上班的时间20年,或者更长时间。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">在你看来,制定月度或年度开支计划或预算对大家有多重要?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">这其实取决于你的个性类型。我在自己的人生中任何时候都没有制定过开支计划或预算。相反,我在进行任何采购或花钱之前只是运用了一套简单的价值观念:“如果我的目的是为自己创造终身的幸福,这笔钱在此是物尽其用了吗?”</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">由于我看重自由和经济实力,这就自动排除了相当多的购物行为。比如,作为一名年轻人,我曾是一个资深车迷。但我没有跑去借钱买讴歌(Acura) NSX,因为相对于一辆豪车,我觉得把那笔钱留作别的用途更有价值。如今,我终于可以不用借钱就能买得起那辆车了,但我很高兴地发现我买车的欲望已经荡然无存。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">有些人也许会认为,这样大量地削减开支无异于像斯克鲁奇(Scrooge, 狄更斯小说《圣诞颂歌》里的守财奴——译注)一样生活,没有任何乐趣。对此你做何感想?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">如果你告诉自己那就是生活将来的样子,那么你就会真的变成那样,生活也不会有乐趣。但如果你弄明白了做一个快乐的人意味着哪些基本的元素时,你就会意识到为自己买更多的东西与你有多么快乐根本没有一点关系。这些基本的元素包括与他人的亲密关系、健康、有回报的工作、有发挥创造力及帮助他人的机会等。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">在这些东西上下功夫,你就会立即开始过质量好得多的生活。很快,你会感到纳闷,那种想要拥有一艘潜水游艇的奇怪冲动来自你旧有自我中的什么地方。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">调查显示,有很多人担心退休的事情,他们没有攒下足够的钱,感觉自己可能永远也退不了休。对那种处境中的人,你能就如何扭转他们的境况提供一点建议吗?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">扭转局面的最快办法是要意识到你能掌控的东西比你想象的多很多。实现退休的时间只取决于一样东西:储蓄率在你的实得工资中所占的百分比,而这又完全取决于你的开支。因此,就在你学会过一种不那么奢华的生活的时候,突然之间云开雾散,你的理财前景就变得相当光明了。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">对于一名或许没有任何信用卡债务、但还在偿还按揭贷款并拥有10万美元左右退休储蓄金的五六十岁的人,你会对他说点什么?有没有什么方案可以让这个人在他60岁出头的时候能够退休?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">那个状况不是一个很好的起点,可是一旦你意识到自己的钱是在哪些地方漏 掉了,并改变你的生活,好把更多的收入积攒下来,转变会以不可思议的速度发生。对多数人来说,从零积蓄到实现经济独立,10到15年时间很充裕。因此,由于起步就有10万美元的优势,加上所有子女都离家单过,这位已年届55岁的人也许具备很好的退休条件。把社会保障金收入计算在内的话,退休的时间甚至会来得更快。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">你认为退休生活需要的资金大约是退休前收入的85%这条经验法则是准确的、有用的、危险的还是无害的?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">这条法则对那些现在要花光差不多所有收入并打算在退休后延续这种习惯的人来说是一条很好的指导原则,但对于我们其他人来说,这样的法则荒唐可笑。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">一种实用得多的观念是把收入这个概念和支出分开。你的收入是由你的谋生手段决定的,但你的支出应该是根据你的需求——真正让你感到快乐的事物和经历——来决定的。例如,我家一年的需求最终加起来总是在25,000美元左右。因此,那就是我们开支的数目,不管我们挣了25,000美元还是20万美元。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">所以,一旦我们一年的退休收入稳定地超过25,000美元,我们在经济上就独立了,于是我们决定退休。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">我不想有任何病态的想法,但一个人可以活多长时间在某种程度上对于退休计划来说是至关重要的一点。你是如何处理这个无法回答却又十分重要的问题的?养老年金及/或长期护理保险是你们的长期理财计划当中的一部分吗?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">如果你的退休计划制定得当,你的预期寿命可能实际上与你的计划没有任何关系。这是因为,30年退休生活所需的资金数量几乎相当于整个余生所需的数量——对大笔钱进行分期偿付产生的奇怪的行为等式。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">我自己没有加入养老年金计划及任何形式的保险,虽然那些产品对有些人的确有价值。那些想法都是以统计数字和概率为依据的,而当你好好算一算就知道,你自己处理事情实际上更安全一些。手里有足够大的一堆可以创收的资产(证券、用于出租的物业等等),你的积蓄可用的时间会轻而易举地超过你的寿命,说不定到你去世的时候还大大增加了。这一大笔积蓄还可以让你在不怎么影响现状的情况下支付预料之外的开支——如果你真的遇到了医疗费用这样的麻烦,迫使你消耗了部分积蓄,你可以有很多年时间进行调整。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">你过去曾经说过,“让你的钱为你工作”这一点很重要。这是不是说在银行开立应急储蓄账户的想法被人用得过度了?人们是不是应该通过应税账户而不是使用银行账户把更多的积蓄投资到金融市场?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">是的,我一直对建立应急基金的想法表示质疑。应急基金对那些初涉金融市场的月光族、那些热水器坏了就会入不敷出、必须靠信用卡借钱度日的人来说是一个非常不错的工具。但是一旦你的经济状况有了起色,你的信用卡就成了一个月度的缓冲工具,你的投资账户就是你的应急基金。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">因此,我根本没有储蓄账户,支票账户上只有几千美元的活期存款。如果产生的一大笔意外开支超过了我的收入,我会把它与所有其它每月开支一起用信用卡支付,然后卖掉一支指数基金的部分份额,赶在月末信用卡自动还款之前将钱转回给银行。我一生中还从来没有发生过必须超信用额度花钱的情况。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">这样好处在于,如果你的支出远远低于你的收入,这些应急花费就会变得少之又少,因为钱总是有盈余,每个月你都必须清理这些盈余,将其拿去投资。所以,如果热水器坏了,你就去买一台新的,当月只不过少做点投资而已。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">你觉得从何种程度上说,住房出租收入是你能够提前退休的关键?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">程度很小——到目前为止,我还没有拥有最辉煌的房东生涯,因此我的租房收入只达到了中等水平。不过优选出来的出租物业带来的回报可能远高于股票,这就可以真正让头脑精明的人加速实现退休计划。就我自己的个案而言,我利用出租住房和炒股省出来的工作时间大约只有一年。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">你是否认为利用额外的储蓄来偿还按揭贷款或在金融市场进行投资是更好的做法?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">对于纳税等级高的人来说,利用401(k)退休福利计划投资费用低的指数基金就可以轻松打赢此仗,尤其是在雇主还要缴纳相应份额的情况下。对于在应纳税的非退休计划账户中进行投资的问题,那完全取决于利率(以及你是否对投资、股市的估值或周期调整市盈率格外精通)。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">现在,在股价高企、利率极低的情况下,我认为这两种投资方式可能有点难分高下,令人丧气,你选择任何一种方式投资都行。但如果按揭贷款利率达到了6%或更高的水平,我还清住房贷款的情绪就会变得越来越高。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">对于身背学生贷款、汽车贷款或信用卡债务等其它债务的人,在利率升高时, 我更会优先考虑偿清债务。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">听起来你的成功好像很多都与削减开支有关系,但我知道我的读者中有些人其实很厌烦听到这种“砍掉拿铁咖啡”的想法。对那部分读者你想说些什么?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">对于大多数人来说,削减开支绝对是增加财富的最强方式。这是因为钱再多,要将其挥霍殆尽也是轻而易举的事情——只需去问问78%的美国全国橄榄球联盟(NFL)运动员,他们在关闭了职业运动生涯这个挥金如土的水龙头之后不久就遇到经济问题。几乎所有的预算也都可以做到削减一半,让砍掉了拿铁的那位幸福之人省出50%、甚至更多的收入。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">但是做到这一点的关键不是减去奢华的享乐——首先要消除你贪图奢华享乐的欲望。如果我渴求一辆2014款的宝马汽车(BMW),开着我那辆2005款的两厢赛恩(Scion)就会是一件令人心烦的事。但由于这辆小赛恩大大满足了我之所需(我反正通常是骑自行车的),我实际上达到了目的,过上了更快乐的生活,与此同时,我甚至在货币贬值和有其它开销的情况下一年还攒了两万美元的积蓄。这一切之中很容易办到的就是任何人都可以摒弃对任何昂贵奢侈品的追求,它们目前占了我们大部分的支出。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">有什么东西是你喜欢购买而不会放弃的?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">这是一个很难回答的问题,因为我们的生活中的确包含了相当数量的奢侈品,有了它们生活才有乐趣。我早餐时喜欢喝美味的咖啡,晚餐时经常喜欢喝葡萄酒,我们最近吃的都是非常高端的食品。我们住的漂亮房子里到处都是好东西,我们还经常去旅行。就在我享受这些东西时,我还嘲笑自己过着如此奢靡的生活,以此提醒自己这些东西没有一样是幸福的必然要素。如果我经济上无力承受,我会立马放弃它们——比如,假如我们背上了债务,或者假如它们危及到了我们过自由生活的能力。但既然生活是一种冒险,而且没有必要追求完美,我们索性涉猎一下美国生活中所有那些正常的奢侈享乐。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">你写了很多关于自力更生的东西——包括自己充当勤杂工。对于那些觉得自己不擅长修修补补又没有足够信心整修自家房屋的人,你有何建议?家居维修对他们来讲会是预算杀手吗?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">事情都是越做越好的。以我之见,可能除了忙碌至极的首席执行长(CEO)们和摇滚歌星之外,每一位房主应该能够照料好房子,并且可以轻松学会如何去做。把这些基本的家务包给他人去做又贵又不能令人满意——找到并监督一位承包人所花的时间经常比自己干活花的时间还多。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">关键是一开始就要假想事事都很容易,因为实际就是如此。然后你只需从图书馆找来一本书,在YouTube上看几段相关话题的视频,接着开始动手。你也可以参加家得宝(Home Depot)公司的免费讨论,在你的朋友关系网中向那些心灵手巧的人求助。人通常都是喜欢帮助别人的。我的朋友向我求助时,我花费了很多自己的空闲时间给他们提供免费的家装建议和帮助。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">说到花费,到外国旅行怎么样?就因为花费太高而直接否定吗?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">旅行的花费根据你的选择可贵可便宜。最近我们做了不少旅行,每年都在加拿大度夏,去年冬天很长时间都是在夏威夷(Hawaii)过的,近几年还到过其它好几个国家。但如果你到那儿之后像当地人一样生活,追求慢节奏的真实体验而不是每天住豪华酒店、玩蹦极运动,花费会少很多。我最喜欢的旅行之一是在一个冬天从科罗拉多开车南下到墨西哥湾沿岸(the Gulf Coast),我们带了一顶帐篷和一只皮艇到那儿,在德克萨斯的热带地区我们发现的海滩和水域悠游了整整一个月。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><b style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">你为何要开博客?</b><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><span style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;">开博客一半原因是出于灵感,一半原因是出于气恼。我和我妻子2005年底从现实的工作中退休,但是我们周围所有的朋友和同龄人都在工作。随着他们的事业成功和收入增长,我不断听到这些关于资金紧张、退休无望的抱怨。可是瞧瞧他们的生活的方式,我能够看到钱到底都是在什么地方漏 掉的——甚至在他们似乎都没注意到的时候。因此我决定开这个博客,把我的想法拿来与世界分享,不是用非请自来的理财建议来搅扰朋友。</span><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><br style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;" /><i style="color: black; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 21px; text-align: left;"><b>Andrea Coombes</b></i></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-77121875937278302992014-01-09T11:36:00.001+08:002014-01-09T11:43:47.868+08:00Is the exit offer of RM3.70 by the offerors fair to dissenting shareholders of BERNAS?<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">I have done a sum-of-part (“SOP”) modelling to work
out the indicative valuation for Padiberas Nasional Berhad (“BERNAS”). It is using
discounted free cash flow for equity method for the concessionaire core
business and PE multiples for the investment in Gardenia bread and flour
business. According to the SOP method, the indicative valuation of BERNAS
should be RM6.15, which is 1.66 times higher than the offer price of RM3.70, or
the offer price is just taking a deep 40% discount to its value. I have been quite conservative in applying
variables in the model with a lower perpetual growth of merely 2%, should the
growth higher the indicative valuation could be more than RM6.15.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Valuation Matrix<o:p></o:p></span></span></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></u></div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 4.25pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 302px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 8.5pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 8.5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 49.7pt;" valign="bottom" width="66"></td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 8.5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="38"></td>
<td colspan="5" nowrap="" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 148.8pt;" valign="bottom" width="198"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Perpetual Growth Rate (%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 8.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 8.5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 49.7pt;" valign="bottom" width="66"></td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 8.5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.3pt;" valign="bottom" width="38"></td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">1%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="bottom" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 34.25pt;" valign="bottom" width="46"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">5%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 14.95pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td rowspan="7" style="border-bottom: solid black 1.0pt; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.95pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid black .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 49.7pt;" width="66"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Discount (%)<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 14.95pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.3pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">0%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.95pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">5.50 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.95pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.75pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="color: red;">6.15 </span></b><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.95pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">7.03 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.95pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">8.30 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 14.95pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 34.25pt;" valign="top" width="46"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">10.31 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 8.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.3pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">10%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4.95 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.75pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">5.53 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">6.32 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">7.47 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 34.25pt;" valign="top" width="46"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">9.28 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 8.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.3pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">20%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4.40 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.75pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4.92 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">5.62 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">6.64 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 34.25pt;" valign="top" width="46"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">8.25 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 8.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.3pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">30%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3.85 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.75pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4.30 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4.92 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">5.81 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 34.25pt;" valign="top" width="46"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">7.22 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 8.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.3pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">40%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3.30 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.75pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="color: red; font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3.69 <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4.22 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4.98 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 34.25pt;" valign="top" width="46"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">6.19 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 8.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.3pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">50%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2.75 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.75pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3.07 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3.51 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4.15 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 34.25pt;" valign="top" width="46"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">5.15 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 8.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.3pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<b><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">60%<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2.20 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.75pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2.46 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">2.81 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 28.6pt;" valign="top" width="38"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">3.32 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 8.5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 4.25pt 0cm 4.25pt; width: 34.25pt;" valign="top" width="46"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">4.12 <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">So is this fair for dissenting shareholders to accept
such a low offer of RM3.70 which is endorsed by the so-called “<i>independent” </i>adviser, i.e. Kenanga
Investment Bank<i> </i>to be ‘fair and
reasonable’. Since the core business of BERNAS is a monopoly business based on
concessionaire which contributed 90% of the indicative valuation, paying hefty
dividends and its cashflow can be forecasted due to the nature of the business,
why not using a discounted cash flow or discounted dividend model instead of
using simple relative valuation methods like P/E or P/B multiples? Is it
because all these discounted models will derive higher valuations that would expose
the unfairness of the offer of RM3.70?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">It would be more worse to dissenting shareholders even
if they reject the exit offer, as the offerors who hold more 86% of BERNAS
shares will vote to delist BERNAS which only require 75% vote in value on those
who present in the EGM. Dissenting shareholders will end up either holding
unlisted shares or their shares would be even compulsory acquired if the
offerors acquired 90% shares of the disinterested shareholders. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">This is a great
oppression on minority shareholders’ rights of getting a fair exit!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;">Find attached with the valuation model below:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.investalks.com/forum/attachment.php?aid=OTc4MTV8MTM5MmU3MGV8MTM4OTIzODg3NXw0Y2I3N3dUbW5KRHJrOHR5K2tvblYxOXFYVU55VU1kajhEanRDZkgrRzR4TmpZMA%3D%3D" target="_blank">Discounted Value (Bernas)</a></span></span></u><br />
<u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></u>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"><u>http://www.investalks.com/forum/redirect.php?goto=findpost&ptid=124&pid=2893030</u></span><br />
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif; line-height: 18.399999618530273px;"><u><br /></u></span></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-59257395882821663002013-12-18T15:33:00.000+08:002013-12-18T15:35:09.135+08:00RHB's analyst report on Instacom Group Berhad<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">RHB Investment Bank (“RHB”) initiated its first research
coverage on Instacom on <b><span style="color: #8e7cc3;">30 September 2013 and rated a buy call for Instacom at
RM0.51</span></b>, taken into consideration that Instacom is a major beneficiary of the rollout of LTE networks and USP projects in
East Malaysia, backed by a decent orderbook of MYR300m. However, RHB
revised its target price for Instacom from RM0.51 <b><span style="color: #8e7cc3;">to RM0.29 at 15 November
2013, a drastic downward revision of 43% after 49 days of its initial coverage</span></b>
on Instacom. The reason for such a drastic revision was due to 2 major
shareholders of Instacom had pared down their interests in the company as well
as limited visibility on contract flows.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">RHB's Analyst Report on 30 September 2013.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2013/09/30/1479298878-1824635063.pdf"><span style="font-size: large;">http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2013/09/30/1479298878-1824635063.pdf</span></a></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">RHB's Analyst Report on 19 November 2013.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2013/11/19/1479384190--484558870.pdf"><span style="font-size: large;">http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2013/11/19/1479384190--484558870.pdf</span></a></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">My Comments:</span></u></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></u></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The revision on the research report done by RHB did catch my attention. Does the reason given by RHB justify its call to
drastically depress the target price of Instacom in such a short period without
any change over the fundamental of Instacom? Shouldn’t RHB have taken into
consider all aspect of risk, including the risk of changing in shareholding of
substantial shareholders and directors and also the uncertainty on contract
flows, before it came to conclude a fair valuation? I am concerned that investors
could have suffered financial losses by following such a confusing called made by
the analyst.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Who is the RHB analyst issued these reports? His name is <b><span style="color: #a64d79;">Chan Jit Hoong</span></b> who previously from OSK Investment's research house. So readers be aware!</span></span></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-20546334053655812272013-11-11T19:08:00.003+08:002013-11-11T19:11:34.784+08:00Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad 的估值<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">在“股票合理价 - 用EXCEL简单容易的计算方法 - 股票新手 - 投资论坛 Investalks 投资论坛”贴发表了有关Nestle的估值,特转载至此向大家分享。全文如下:</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; word-wrap: break-word;" />
<a href="http://www.investalks.com/forum/redirect.php?goto=findpost&ptid=9046&pid=2762083" style="background-color: white; color: #ff8e00; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">http://www.investalks.com/forum/ ... 046&pid=2762083</a><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; word-wrap: break-word;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">我在2011年8月29日的估值:</span><br />
<a href="http://www.investalks.com/forum/redirect.php?goto=findpost&ptid=9046&pid=784336" style="background-color: white; color: #ff8e00; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">http://www.investalks.com/forum/ ... 9046&pid=784336</a><br />
<a href="http://kinwing.blogspot.com/2011/09/dcf-valuation-1-nestle-malaysia-berhad.html">http://kinwing.blogspot.com/2011/09/dcf-valuation-1-nestle-malaysia-berhad.html</a><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; word-wrap: break-word;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">thx2012在2013年7月4日的评论:</span><br />
<a href="http://www.investalks.com/forum/redirect.php?goto=findpost&ptid=9046&pid=2462110" style="background-color: white; color: #ff8e00; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">http://www.investalks.com/forum/ ... 046&pid=2462110</a><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; word-wrap: break-word;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">我之前在2011年8月29日为Nestle估值时为RM48.37,知道你在2013年7月4日评论时已经过了1.85年(674天),如你那天所说在2013年7月4日的股价是RM65,而在这1.85年期间Nestel总共派了5次股息为RM4.50 (= RM0.55+RM1.25+RM0.55+RM1.55+RM0.60)。</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; word-wrap: break-word;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">所以这1.85年的总回报率如下:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">= [(RM65+RM4.50)/RM48.37] - 1</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">= 0.4368</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">= 43.68%</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; word-wrap: break-word;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">Nestle年均复利回报率如下</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">= [(1+43.68%)^(674/365)] - 1</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">= 0.2169</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">= 21.69%</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; word-wrap: break-word;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">当我在2011年8月29日为Nestle估值时其最近12个月(四个季度)每股盈利计算的每股税后盈利(12 month trailing EPS)为RM1.7283 (= 65.11 sen+16.74sen+48.27sen+42.71sen),而当你评论时其12个月(四个季度)每股盈利计算的每股税后盈利以成长至RM2.3911 (= 196.69sen+42.42sen)。</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; word-wrap: break-word;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">因此Nestle的税后盈利年均复利增长率如下:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">= {[(RM2.3911/RM1.7283)]^(674/365)} - 1</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">= 0.1922</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">= 19.22%</span><br />
<br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; word-wrap: break-word;" />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Verdana, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302947998px; line-height: 22.386363983154297px;">由此可见Nestle在这1.85年期间的ROI(既是股价回报率加上股息)为21.69%,跟Nestle税后盈利年均复利增长率的19.22%相差不远,这显示出我当时的估算还是可经得起考验和有效的,这意味着Nestle的股价并没有大幅度偏离其价值。</span>kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-79350367122435050022013-07-03T18:59:00.001+08:002013-07-03T18:59:21.518+08:00你没见过的李安真面目,难怪老婆会养他<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-fareast;">第</span><span style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-fareast;">85<span lang="ZH-CN">届奥斯卡颁奖礼,李安二夺最佳导演奖,全世界华人与有荣誉。而他赶场来不及吃晚餐,三更半夜在路旁一手举小金人一手吃汉堡的幸福摸样则被网友封为华人影坛最</span>‘<span lang="ZH-CN">萌</span>’<span lang="ZH-CN">。连过往旧照也被翻出,网友疯传他</span>28<span lang="ZH-CN">岁的潮男照,被赞真是有帅又萌!</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipihPvcIWHyyRRST-wLc-DpjtWPBSUNFPuVLgZWF9dU2EDPhPp3nEMAO5WfFYtdopwqSObRPrBVV_LFzMmhDALyI0O876oq-jN6c6vqnYcoWY-7N8UMNaA0E0zDbIKnGUBXh7G50VVgpo/s450/1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipihPvcIWHyyRRST-wLc-DpjtWPBSUNFPuVLgZWF9dU2EDPhPp3nEMAO5WfFYtdopwqSObRPrBVV_LFzMmhDALyI0O876oq-jN6c6vqnYcoWY-7N8UMNaA0E0zDbIKnGUBXh7G50VVgpo/s320/1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-fareast;">在李安拿着小金人在路边啃汉堡的照片走红后,其一系列剪刀手机耍酷旧照就被曝光,网友笑称其早就是影坛</span><span style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-fareast;">‘<span lang="ZH-CN">萌</span>’<span lang="ZH-CN">主。</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ1RU3MzqZYJRMTIW2NDSp0nW-FKx9JUrVHQ6mJaRugawAZ3EWffcx8uE5GWKp6MykBAv3DlnBPzoTFQ46sy58cZHLQT8i5QWz9pQLM5cmt-ychKxvvhXQCR8ApNeE5zKED4AKq6P_2Xg/s550/2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ1RU3MzqZYJRMTIW2NDSp0nW-FKx9JUrVHQ6mJaRugawAZ3EWffcx8uE5GWKp6MykBAv3DlnBPzoTFQ46sy58cZHLQT8i5QWz9pQLM5cmt-ychKxvvhXQCR8ApNeE5zKED4AKq6P_2Xg/s320/2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8CJmfKhkwFLpyOsELkRukjX_T8SJ4di_TDo7XvYfoau6ByZOx_TN3KsKSd2bgpZriT6dNqul1e_VG-6IOJdoKPftob2NfdTq9MMvhf9ZQ5DeVaao3VS-pDA9Ap0IHwIhBoRorWkd5jr0/s625/3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8CJmfKhkwFLpyOsELkRukjX_T8SJ4di_TDo7XvYfoau6ByZOx_TN3KsKSd2bgpZriT6dNqul1e_VG-6IOJdoKPftob2NfdTq9MMvhf9ZQ5DeVaao3VS-pDA9Ap0IHwIhBoRorWkd5jr0/s320/3.jpg" width="261" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-fareast;">2007<span lang="ZH-CN">年金马奖李安揭晓最佳男主角摆剪刀手装可爱,令人感受到国际大导演的童心。</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXiZeLbgNP9l61xLa_yxBTTqLKYR7fW6Gvv7hImEm2NdQ4Y3Mxt9UK_R3uabLaQpNQfcxxM0z7G8vuWF4-SSa25B_MLZp_b8g18APi76XGOSK7NBxUfo4jDhViYAWrKREQ4DJh0lpWxW4/s550/4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXiZeLbgNP9l61xLa_yxBTTqLKYR7fW6Gvv7hImEm2NdQ4Y3Mxt9UK_R3uabLaQpNQfcxxM0z7G8vuWF4-SSa25B_MLZp_b8g18APi76XGOSK7NBxUfo4jDhViYAWrKREQ4DJh0lpWxW4/s320/4.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-fareast;">李安挺电影《变身》摆出超人动作。</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6AmwbAisxkoo-ByoaGNBulYXy2Xbne5EECL4qBU-049nJjm11A1jdW7d-ENdDtDTBs4YeTY4y2VfL7V4egsfg3wDKTTumH5GhWVAFKsbEsaSYrib7-py9LIgh9RwtxH85vsdcSa1uS54/s625/5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6AmwbAisxkoo-ByoaGNBulYXy2Xbne5EECL4qBU-049nJjm11A1jdW7d-ENdDtDTBs4YeTY4y2VfL7V4egsfg3wDKTTumH5GhWVAFKsbEsaSYrib7-py9LIgh9RwtxH85vsdcSa1uS54/s320/5.jpg" width="257" /></a></div>
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-fareast;">奥斯卡庆功宴上李安和杰克</span><span style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-fareast;">.<span lang="ZH-CN">葛伦霍。</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEwPFSJs49QauHuVbTth-kdrC5dQs8I5W2WFITYeswnpTOEALBtbOq7X-NLC0fSyF0HKLKfMy4qd31hQEk3W7Rjw-xITa22Xd8FXV2kaP8lWm7GdLjwkbSiiJ9UtPQvY4DrxZtDLLOmgs/s550/6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEwPFSJs49QauHuVbTth-kdrC5dQs8I5W2WFITYeswnpTOEALBtbOq7X-NLC0fSyF0HKLKfMy4qd31hQEk3W7Rjw-xITa22Xd8FXV2kaP8lWm7GdLjwkbSiiJ9UtPQvY4DrxZtDLLOmgs/s320/6.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="ZH-CN" style="font-family: SimSun; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-fareast-theme-font: major-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-fareast;">李安毕业搞怪扮大侠。</span></div>
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kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-70718050044908199522013-06-16T23:09:00.000+08:002013-07-03T19:00:57.575+08:00理查.费曼曾说:“数学和物理这种东西,是上帝要人们在一旁看著它在下的棋。”<br />
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><span style="font-size: large;">原著</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">(大和撫子のこころ9 より引用)</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.984375px;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">『数学や物理というのは、神様のやっているチェスを横から眺めて</span><wbr style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"></span><span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">、そこにどんなルールがあるのか、どんな美しい法則があるのか、</span><wbr style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"></span><span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">探していくことだ。』と。</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"> </span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">最初からそんな法則はないと思うことも出来ます。</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">この宇宙で起こっていることが全て、</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">でたらめで意味のない出来事の繰り返しばかりだとしたら、</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">数学者たちは、なにもすることがなくなってしまう。</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">そんな退屈な宇宙に住んでいること自体、嫌気がさしてしまう。</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"> </span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">でも、岡本はチェスの謎を解くことをあきらめませんでした。</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">おまけに、ゆりさんの様な人と巡り会うことが出来た。</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"> </span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">ひょっとしたら、人と人が出会うことも、</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">そのルールにのっとっているのかも知れません。</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">もし、そこに何かのルールがなかったら、</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">二人がどっかで出会っても、そのまますれ違って</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">関わり合うことも、言葉を交わすこともなかったはずなのに。</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"> </span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">宇宙の片隅のこの会場で、僕たちがこうして集まることが出来たの</span><wbr style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"></span><span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">も、</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">そして、僕たちがこんなにハッピーなのも、</span></div>
<div style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px; text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">岡本が、たった一人の女性と巡り会ってくれたおかげです。</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">運命といういちばん難しい謎を、今日、彼が解いてくれたような気</span><wbr style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"></span><span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">がします。</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">(おめでとう、)おめでとう。</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">================</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">中文翻译:</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">(引自大和抚子之剧)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">就是那个物理学者理查德·费曼曾经这么说过</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">数学与物理这种东西 是上帝要人们在一旁 看着他下棋</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">要你自己去找出其中 到底有什么样的规则</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">其实一开始 根本就没有什么所谓的规则</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">在这宇宙里 所发生的全都是些假象</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">只是些无意义的事 一味地在重复着而已</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">如果真的是这样 那数学家就没有任何事可做了</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">甚至会引发不想居住在这么无趣的宇宙里的反感心理</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">但是冈本他</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">却没有放弃去解开棋子之迷</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">而且还能与百合小姐这么好的人相遇</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">我想 人与人的相遇或许是按着宇宙成规而行的吧</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">如果在那其中 有了什么行不通的成规</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">那么即使两个人在某处相遇 也只会就那么擦身而过 不会有任何瓜葛</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">甚至也不会交谈才对</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">然而在宇宙里 这个小小的会场里</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">我们却能这样聚集在此 并且今天能够这么开心</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">要多亏冈本遇到了独一无二的女性</span></div>
</span><span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">他似乎为我们解开了命运这个最难解开的迷了</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 17.99715805053711px;"><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">恭喜 恭喜你们…</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">感想:</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">人和人之间的缘分是上天注定的命运,难道是冥冥中之有安排?</span></div>
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<span style="line-height: 17.99715805053711px;">珍惜现在,展望未来,就是掌握命运最好的做法。</span></div>
</span></span></span>kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-40597636537894618302013-06-15T17:27:00.000+08:002013-06-15T17:27:13.966+08:00Implied Discount Rate for Boilermech Holdings Berhad?<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: white; font-size: x-large;">I have done a model to evaluate the implied discount rate as indicated by the target price set by RHB together with my own assumptions.</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-size: x-large;">I am not sure if either I am too conservative or RHB is too optimistic on the valuation RM1.70 as I am getting very low implied discount rates derived from the 2 methods.</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-size: x-large;">You are welcome to give any comments. :) </span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-size: x-large;"><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiCJG15h4QJtdHpxam5JWE5KTEdQS19memN0VzF6Z0E&usp=sharing" target="_blank">Boilermech</a></span></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-12441139234470228342013-06-05T14:27:00.002+08:002013-06-05T14:29:32.875+08:00Valuation of Supermax Corproation Berhad<span style="color: white; font-size: x-large;">Below is my work on a simple calculation on the intrinsic value of Supermax, which is estimated to be RM4.10 per share. :p</span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-size: large;"><span style="color: black;"></span></span><br />
<span style="color: white; font-size: large;"><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiCJG15h4QJtdGtvRjZ5bmMta2pLV3VtWUJ1cUhLbVE#gid=0" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Supermax</a></span>kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-29268441365298410972013-05-31T14:37:00.005+08:002013-05-31T14:38:38.296+08:00Spurs swept Grizzlies back home by 4 - 0<span style="color: white; font-size: x-large;">My favourite NBA team, Spurs had swept Grizzlies back home by 4 - 0!</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">Like this picture :)</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-2LH3jranfh4u5ybDyCeVfK5HlWFdqzFNOQEAWfNJZgDzYuRbVTxJ0xISeHrk12uOiv3RMtQnr3OHhtxNduh354TWRiLbOM2ngbEeW5ln5OneEfntEGz1HvDTom0zEfElUhLjzoEpL1I/s1600/136971292944069.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-2LH3jranfh4u5ybDyCeVfK5HlWFdqzFNOQEAWfNJZgDzYuRbVTxJ0xISeHrk12uOiv3RMtQnr3OHhtxNduh354TWRiLbOM2ngbEeW5ln5OneEfntEGz1HvDTom0zEfElUhLjzoEpL1I/s400/136971292944069.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-40468605598639776322013-05-31T13:51:00.004+08:002013-06-02T15:17:49.314+08:00Path to the CFA (Part 5)<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: white; font-size: x-large;">I passed CFA Level II in August 2009. Right after that, I spent 3-month time on travelling in overseas to Singapore, Bangkok and China. I came back to KL in November when the class for CFA Level III commenced. This time the number of classmates reduced by another half of the size (about 16 classmates) from the class of Level II as the passing rate for CFA Level II was less than 50%.<!--50--><!--50--></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-size: x-large;">As usual, since I was a full time student, I read the curriculum materials 8 hours per day before going for classes. Normally I would reach the class 30 minutes to 1 hour earlier, so I could meet my study group for discussions. The study group was formed by 4 classmates including me. We shared our study experience and raised certain topics that we found difficult to comprehend for group discussion. When it was 1 month before the exam at June 2010, despite the class was over, I still met my study group once a week for group studied at 1 of the unoccupied classroom in Kasturi college. Finally, our effort paid off as all members of my studied group passed the Level III exam! Whereby the passing rate for the whole class in Kasturi college as well as the whole world was only 50%.</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-size: x-large;">In my opinion, the standard of Level III was not as tough as Level II, probably because there were more theory topics than computing topics in Level III. In addition, I found few topics in Level III such as behavioural finance, financial planning and methods of computing investment return (Global Investment Performance Standards) were very to read and understand. Indeed, I further read more books and journals related to those topics that I aforementioned and these have improved my investment assessment skill greatly.</span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-size: x-large;">The time to look to for job after completing the full-time study of CFA was so right on track that the world economy was recovering from the finacial crisis since 2008. I took a month of break and travelled to New Zealnd for few weeks after I got the result of Level III and only back in mid-September 2010 for interviews in few Investment Banks which were referred by my friends from the study group. With the reference from my friends, I had gone through few smooth interviews and had few offers on my hand. At the end, I decided to take the offer from a smaller bank, as I hope that a small size bank would not have much stress working environment than the bank. I commenced to work again on in October 2010, and I would still need to accumulate another 2 more years to qualify for the application of the CFA Charter title.</span></div>
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</span>kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-6556187298389248892013-05-30T23:38:00.001+08:002013-05-31T13:18:51.108+08:00Suria Capital Berhad's Intrinsic Value?<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: white; font-size: x-large;">Recently I had done a simple calculation on the intrinsic value of Suria Capital, which is estimated to be RM2.47 per share, and would like to share some of my working here. The excel modelling is simple and may not be accurate, so read this at your own risk. :p</span></div>
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<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiCJG15h4QJtdFdIRi1pS252WXNNWVJuQ1A1NnRHMVE&usp=sharing" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: x-large;">Suria Capital Berhad</span></a></div>
</span>kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-65799045136713809362013-05-28T14:01:00.000+08:002013-05-28T14:04:11.492+08:00Forward: A huge RM43bil problem over non-bank lending<div class="contentHeadline" style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: brown; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: bold 18px/normal Verdana; letter-spacing: normal; margin: 10px 0px; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<a href="http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/231359"><span style="font-size: large;">http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/231359</span></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f3f3f3; color: white;"><span style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: brown; display: inline !important; float: none; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: medium; font-stretch: normal; font: bold 18px/normal Verdana; letter-spacing: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">A huge RM43bil problem over non-bank lending</span></span></div>
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<li style="display: block; font-family: Verdana; margin: 2px 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://www.malaysiakini.com/browse/a/en/Jose%20Barrock,%20KiniBiz" style="font-family: Verdana;"><span style="font-size: large;">Jose Barrock, KiniBiz</span></a></li>
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<li style="display: block; font-family: Verdana; margin: 2px 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-size: large;">11:28AM May 28, 2013</span></li>
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-size: large;">A major problem is brewing in the financial services sector - specifically through the lending of development financial institutions (DFIs), non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs) and credit cooperatives.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-size: large;">This is in the form of a near two-thirds increase in personal financing last year by these non-bank institutions to RM43 billion last year.</span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-size: large;">Judging by Bank Negara Malaysia’s Financial Stability and Systems Report 2012, there are clearly issues which are getting out of hand, if unchecked.</span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-size: large;">“It’s all in the Financial Stability Report 2012. It is quite shocking... read it, it’s a good thing that after the Financial Services Act (2013) comes into force all these will come under the purview of Bank Negara... things have gotten out of hand,” an official from one of the larger banks told<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><em style="font-family: Verdana;">KiniBiz</em>.</span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-size: large;">He added that while Bank Kerjasama Rakyat (Bank Rakyat) had already received a memo or note from the Central Bank, the rest were also in the crosshairs and unlikely to get off the hook easily, once the Financial Services Act 2013 kicks in.</span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-size: large;">Other than Bank Rakyat, some of the DFIs operating locally include Bank Simpanan Nasional Bhd, Bank Pembangunan Malaysia Bhd and Export Import Bank of Malaysia Bhd, to name a few.</span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-size: large;">Whereas NBFIs include Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB), which is controlled by the Employees Provident Fund, RCE Capital Bhd controlled by businessperson Azman Hashim of Arab Malaysian group or now Am fame, and other non-banking credit providers such as Courts Mammoth Bhd, and Aeon Credit Services (M) Bhd, among others.</span><br />
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<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img alt="azlan" height="200" src="http://1-ps.googleusercontent.com/x/www.malaysiakini.com/mk-cdn.mkini.net/316/300x200x7987d010ba21a4492b8d80630aa300cb.gif.pagespeed.ic.3bd_2iKbwk.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); font-family: Verdana; margin: 4px; padding: 3px;" width="300" />Meanwhile, the credit cooperatives have an umbrella body, the National Cooperative Organisation of Malaysia or Angkatan Koperasi Kebangsaan Malaysia (Angkasa).<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-size: large;">Angkasa is the sole body which has an interface with the Accountant-General’s Office that facilitates salary deductions for government employees.</span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-size: large;">MBSB especially, is currently being closely watched by Bank Negara, the banking official said.</span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-size: large;">MBSB is defined as a Scheduled Institution under the Banking and Financial Institution Act 1989 (Bafia) - and as an exempt finance company - thus allowing it to undertake financing activities in the absence of a banking license.</span><br />
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<span style="color: white; font-size: large;">Bank Negara, it seems, is trying to end this special provision of MBSB.</span></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-91643253021599124682013-05-28T13:59:00.000+08:002013-05-28T14:09:20.183+08:00RCE Capital Berhad在最新业绩报告(2013 Q4)出人意表地陷入亏损<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">RCE Capital Berhad ("RCECAP")向公务员的薪水里自动扣除部分来还贷的生意模式都面对坏账的问题,虽说是因为采取了更严格的MFRS而导致坏账的增加,但这也显示出本地金融业将开始步入金融泡沫破裂的前奏。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">国家中央银行("BNM")应该是为了避免人民过度借贷和不想重蹈覆辙类似美国的次级房贷债务风暴,已经开始采取贷款紧缩政策。非银行金融机构如MBSB和RCECAP已经被BNM盯上了,我看BNM会设下更严厉的借贷条件来防止过度借贷,可能会逐步的对银行金融机构设立严厉的借贷条件,所以那些过度借贷个人贷款或房贷的朋友可要小心了。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">最后就是美国经济和中国经济将逐步好转,而且美联储已经放话要退出量宽政策,长期来看美元将会加强进而利息会逐渐的提高,即时那些过度借贷的人可能会面临偿还高利息的难题。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">看来BNM的紧缩贷款政策和长期利息高升的趋势下,马来西亚经济和楼市的荣景将会到了一个尽头。</span></div>
kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8275209031622575766.post-34611107309495416512013-04-14T11:16:00.000+08:002013-04-14T14:42:46.148+08:00因为以前的Nestle,所以今天的Oldtown<span style="font-size: large;">几年前当我在为Nestle做估值研究时,发现到Nestle当时的内在价值跟它的市价RM20++相差无几而且其本益比已经将近30倍,所以我决定不买进。现在Nestle的市价已经是RM60++而本益比还是接近20多30倍,那Nestle现在还是那么贵?那多几年后Nestle的市价升到RM120我还是因为它起了那么多本益比那么高所以不买进?</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">后来我在近期才领悟到巴菲特如何从以往只买烟屁股的股票进化到买进强劲品牌的公司,如何凭着投资人和生意人的直觉找出拥有护城河的品牌公司跟普通公司之间的差别。品牌公司的股价会因为业务有增长并逐步步入成熟期而提高其派息率而会起得更高,那我现在因为本益比高了所以卖了品牌公司的股票焉不是个错误的决定?品牌公司能以数值化的本益比来加以定义么?品牌公司值得多少钱?多少倍的本益比才是高?20倍?30倍?我只想强调投资是门艺术,有时需要靠直觉,而光靠数字思考,将会让我错失更多的机会。</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">同样的道理也能适用在Oldtown。现在Oldtown的本益比是22倍,它有没有可能再升高呢?如果Oldtown的税后盈利接下几年都能增长15%至20%,如果它的本益比就好比Nestle那般即使股价长年不变的企稳在20倍以上,那意味着Oldtown的股价将会根据其盈利而在4至5年开个翻达RM5.20。我就在此做个记录看4至5年后Oldtown的股价会如我所料的升高至RM5.20。</span>kinwinghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07011654398035839190noreply@blogger.com1