马来西亚政府以面值(Par Value)来计算土著股权占有率(Bumiputera's shareholding)的险恶居心

假设30年前，马来西亚有5间公司（既是A, B, C, D 和 E公司），每间公司的发行股数为1,000股以及其股票的面值(Par Value)为RM1.00，而且所有公司都以其面值的价值来发行(Issue Price)股票，所以每一间公司的缴足资本为(Issued and Paid-Up Capital)RM1,000。

如果这5间公司以面值来计算的话其占市场上的股权占有率如下：
Value of A = RM1,000 (20%)
Value of B = RM1,000 (20%)
Value of C = RM1,000 (20%)
Value of D = RM1,000 (20%)
Value of E = RM1,000 (20%)
Total Value = RM5,000 (100%)

由于当时这5间公司在同时开始营运，所以它们的盈余保留(Retained Earnings/ Reserve)是0。因此它们的股东资金（Shareholders’ Equity，又可称为Net Asset Value，简称NAV）是相同的：
(Number of Shares * Par Value) + Share Premium + Retained Earnings = NAV
NAV of A = (1,000 * RM1.00) + RM0 + RM0 = RM1,000
NAV of B = (1,000 * RM1.00) + RM0 + RM0 = RM1,000
NAV of C = (1,000 * RM1.00) + RM0 + RM0 = RM1,000
NAV of D = (1,000 * RM1.00) + RM0 + RM0 = RM1,000
NAV of E = (1,000 * RM1.00) + RM0 + RM0 = RM1,000

而且我们也假设它们的市价（Market Value，简称MV）是NAV的1倍，既是Price-to-book ratio （P/B）= 1 time。所以在起点时这5间公司以市价来计算的话，它们的股权占有率都是相等的：
MV = NAV * 1x of P/B
MV of A = RM1,000 (20%)
MV of B = RM1,000 (20%)
MV of C = RM1,000 (20%)
MV of D = RM1,000 (20%)
MV of E = RM1,000 (20%)
Total MV = RM5,000 (100%)

土著在当时只控有A公司，那土著在30年前以面值或市价来计算他们的股权占有率都显示出他们控有了20%的股权。

30年后，这5间公司的Retained Earnings/ Reserve如下：
Retained Earnings/ Reserve of A = RM10,000
Retained Earnings/ Reserve of B = RM1,000
Retained Earnings/ Reserve of C = RM1,000
Retained Earnings/ Reserve of D = RM2,000
Retained Earnings/ Reserve of E = RM-20,000

这5间公司30年后的NAV如下（假设这5间公司在30年里没有派过任何股息，没有做过股票自购（Share Buyback）没有做过股票分割或整合(Share Split or Share Consolidation)，没有派过红股(Bonus Issue)或Share Dividend，也没曾发行过附加股（Rights Issue））：
NAV of A: RM1,000 + RM0 + RM10,000 = RM11,000
NAV of B: RM1,000 + RM0 + RM1,000 = RM2,000
NAV of C: RM1,000 + RM0 + RM1,000 = RM2,000
NAV of D: RM1,000 + RM0 + RM2,000 = RM3,000
NAV of E: RM1,000 + RM0 + RM-20,000 = RM-19,000

由于E公司的股东资金为负数并宣布破产，所以它的市价为0。以那剩下4间公司的面值来算公司的股权占有率如下：
Value of A = RM1,000 (25%)
Value of B = RM1,000 (25%)
Value of C = RM1,000 (25%)
Value of D = RM1,000 (25%)
Total Value = RM4,000 (100%)

大家可以看得出如果以面值来算，那土著所掌控的A公司在整个市场上的占有率只略为提升至25%，还少于30%。但这并没有算进公司NAV的增长，极可能是政府刻意忽略，以达到其控制市场为终极目标的恶毒居心。

如果以剩下的4间公司的NAV来算它们的市价 (假设它们的P/B率还是1倍)，那它们各自的股权占有率如下：
MV of A = RM11,000 (61.11%)
MV of B = RM2,000 (11.11%)
MV of C = RM2,000 (11.11%)
MV of D = RM3,000 (16.67%)
Total MV = RM18,000 (100%)

可以看得出以市价算股权占有率的话，土著的股权占有率其实已经透过A公司掌控达到了61.11%的市场股权占有率，而不是政府所说的25%。

看回马来西亚上市公司的市值最大的前3间公司，既是Sime Darby, Maybank和CIMB Bank，是不是跟我以上的例子有点相似？如果以面值来算的话，那这3间公司在马来西亚1,000间上市公司中的股权占有率就是及其微小的，但是以市价来算的话那情况就不一样了。现在大家可看透了马来西亚政府的“用心”了么？

ICULS Valuation: Scomi Engineering Bhd

According to my research, the intrinsic value of the ICULS of Scomi Engineering Bhd range from RM0.5418 to RM0.5424 per RM1 nominal value of ICULS. To achieve a safety of margin for the investment, I use to buy a security when its market price is 20% in discount to its intrinsic value, so the target price of F&N is RM0.4335 to RM0.4339 per RM1 nominal value of ICULS.

ScomiEn-LA

DCF Valuation (2): Fraser & Neave Holdings Berhad

According to my research, the intrinsic value of F&N is RM17.85 per share. To achieve a safety of margin for the investment, I use to buy a company's share when its market price is 20% in discount to its intrinsic value, so the target price of F&N is RM14.28.

The excel modelling for F&N is a little bit complicated than the previous excel file for Nestle, as this time I calculated the 5-year Beta of F&N based on its fluctuation for past 5-year daily prices against the daily fluctuation for the KLCI index.

F&N

DCF Valuation (1): Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad

I have recently completed the valuation for few companies for my own investment research. I used the discounted cash flow method ("DCF") to derive the valuation of the companies. So far all the companies I valued are blue chip companies which generate stable free cash flow and thus they are suitable to be valued by the DCF method.

The 1st company I did the research was Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad. I completed this valuation few weeks ago and share that in a chinese investment forum. Since I have not long updated my blog for quite some time, I uploaded my research to update my blog.

According to my research, the intrinsic value of Nestle is RM48.37 per share. As I am a value investor, so I would only buy a company's share which market price is 20% in discount to its intrinsic value, so the target price of Nestle is RM38.70.

Nestle.rar

(Finally I find a way to upload my excel file, so I am here providing a guide how to download the excel file. Please look at the picture I posted for the procedure to download the excel file:
1st step - click at the Nestle.rar link
2nd step - the link will then direct you to the google docs page as shown in the picture
3rd step - click the "file" selection as shown in the picture will drop down a list, so select "Download original" to save the excel file into your PC...^_^)