Friday, January 8, 2010

Is ICAP's NAV discount relevant to value investor?

The purpose of setting up ICAP is to enjoy capital appreciation in the long run. In an extreme case that if all initial IPO investors of the fund were serious value investors and who invest ICAP because of TTB's outperformance, they wont sell a share from the 1st day of listing. So the fund would have a stale price of RM1 since its listing, not RM1.83 now. Indeed, the meaning of 'close' end fund mean there would be no additional fresh capital (except right issue) being added into the fund and thus the original investor dont really expect about the 'new' investors.

So what will happen to those investors who bought at RM1 at the IPO and still being priced at RM1 today? Their only concern is the growth of NAV, not the share price. In this case the market is non-existance, TTB can just liquidate the fund and everyone will get back their value base on the NAV instead of receiving wrong reward base on market price.

Of course now the situation is not at the extreme side that the original IPO investors wont sell a share since IPO otherwise you and I can't buy the fund to enjoy its benefit. The situation is just at the midpoint of the extreme amid the discounting the NAV is becoming bigger. But just like what I mentioned in the extreme case that the role of market doesnt matter or it is just irrelevant.

By the way, those who think can beat TTB by "emulating the fund's purchases by investing in the bigger companies and ignore the smaller ones have yielded a much higher returns" wound end up just like those who try to beat Warren Buffet by mimicking his portfolio holding. However, we simply just dont know when TTB or Warrent Buffet is going to liqudiate their position and left the mimicker like a dumb ass who think they have outperformed (Please refer to the case of Berkshire Hathaway Holding of China Oil then you would know those Warren Buffet mimickers look stupid today).

Lastly I wanna quote a phrase from Warren Buffet: "If a business is worth a dollar and I can buy it for 40 cents, something good may happen to me. Those who cannot understand this concept in 5 minutes will not get it through even after 10 years." So any of those who bought ICAP shares but feels uneasy being trapped in discount, please stop pretending to be value investor and dispose the shares to get out from the trouble.

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